Closing yield gaps for rice self-sufficiency in China

Nanyan Deng, Patricio Grassini, Haishun Yang, Jianliang Huang, Kenneth G. Cassman and Shaobing Peng ()
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Nanyan Deng: Huazhong Agricultural University
Patricio Grassini: University of Nebraska-Lincoln
Haishun Yang: University of Nebraska-Lincoln
Jianliang Huang: Huazhong Agricultural University
Kenneth G. Cassman: University of Nebraska-Lincoln
Shaobing Peng: Huazhong Agricultural University

Nature Communications, 2019, vol. 10, issue 1, 1-9

Abstract: Abstract China produces 28% of global rice supply and is currently self-sufficient despite a massive rural-to-urban demographic transition that drives intense competition for land and water resources. At issue is whether it will remain self-sufficient, which depends on the potential to raise yields on existing rice land. Here we report a detailed spatial analysis of rice production potential in China and evaluate scenarios to 2030. We find that China is likely to remain self-sufficient in rice assuming current yield and consumption trajectories and no reduction in production area. A focus on increasing yields of double-rice systems on general, and in three single-rice provinces where yield gaps are relatively large, would provide greatest return on investments in research and development to remain self-sufficient. Discrepancies between results from our detailed bottom-up yield-gap analysis and those derived following a top-down methodology show that the two approaches would result in very different research and development priorities.

Date: 2019
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-019-09447-9

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