Measured Canadian oil sands CO2 emissions are higher than estimates made using internationally recommended methods

John Liggio (), Shao-Meng Li (), Ralf M. Staebler, Katherine Hayden, Andrea Darlington, Richard L. Mittermeier, Jason O’Brien, Robert McLaren, Mengistu Wolde, Doug Worthy and Felix Vogel
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John Liggio: Environment and Climate Change Canada
Shao-Meng Li: Environment and Climate Change Canada
Ralf M. Staebler: Environment and Climate Change Canada
Katherine Hayden: Environment and Climate Change Canada
Andrea Darlington: Environment and Climate Change Canada
Richard L. Mittermeier: Environment and Climate Change Canada
Jason O’Brien: Environment and Climate Change Canada
Robert McLaren: York University
Mengistu Wolde: National Research Council Canada
Doug Worthy: Environment and Climate Change Canada
Felix Vogel: Environment and Climate Change Canada

Nature Communications, 2019, vol. 10, issue 1, 1-9

Abstract: Abstract The oil and gas (O&G) sector represents a large source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions globally. However, estimates of O&G emissions rely upon bottom-up approaches, and are rarely evaluated through atmospheric measurements. Here, we use aircraft measurements over the Canadian oil sands (OS) to derive the first top-down, measurement-based determination of the their annual CO2 emissions and intensities. The results indicate that CO2 emission intensities for OS facilities are 13–123% larger than those estimated using publically available data. This leads to 64% higher annual GHG emissions from surface mining operations, and 30% higher overall OS GHG emissions (17 Mt) compared to that reported by industry, despite emissions reporting which uses the most up to date and recommended bottom-up approaches. Given the similarity in bottom-up reporting methods across the entire O&G sector, these results suggest that O&G CO2 emissions inventory data may be more uncertain than previously considered.

Date: 2019
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-019-09714-9

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