Uncertainty in near-term global surface warming linked to tropical Pacific climate variability

Mohammad Hadi Bordbar (), Matthew H. England, Alex Gupta, Agus Santoso, Andréa S. Taschetto, Thomas Martin, Wonsun Park and Mojib Latif
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Mohammad Hadi Bordbar: GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel
Matthew H. England: University of New South Wales
Alex Gupta: University of New South Wales
Agus Santoso: University of New South Wales
Andréa S. Taschetto: University of New South Wales
Thomas Martin: GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel
Wonsun Park: GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel
Mojib Latif: GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel

Nature Communications, 2019, vol. 10, issue 1, 1-10

Abstract: Abstract Climate models generally simulate a long-term slowdown of the Pacific Walker Circulation in a warming world. However, despite increasing greenhouse forcing, there was an unprecedented intensification of the Pacific Trade Winds during 1992–2011, that co-occurred with a temporary slowdown in global surface warming. Using ensemble simulations from three different climate models starting from different initial conditions, we find a large spread in projected 20-year globally averaged surface air temperature trends that can be linked to differences in Pacific climate variability. This implies diminished predictive skill for global surface air temperature trends over decadal timescales, to a large extent due to intrinsic Pacific Ocean variability. We show, however, that this uncertainty can be considerably reduced when the initial oceanic state is known and well represented in the model. In this case, the spatial patterns of 20-year surface air temperature trends depend largely on the initial state of the Pacific Ocean.

Date: 2019
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-019-09761-2

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