Palaeodemographic modelling supports a population bottleneck during the Pleistocene-Holocene transition in Iberia

Javier Fernández-López de Pablo (), Mario Gutiérrez-Roig, Madalena Gómez-Puche, Rowan McLaughlin, Fabio Silva and Sergi Lozano
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Javier Fernández-López de Pablo: Institut Català de Paleoecología Humana i Evolució Social (IPHES), Edificio W3, Campus Sescelades URV, Zona Educacional 4
Mario Gutiérrez-Roig: University of Warwick, Scarman Rd
Madalena Gómez-Puche: Institut Català de Paleoecología Humana i Evolució Social (IPHES), Edificio W3, Campus Sescelades URV, Zona Educacional 4
Rowan McLaughlin: Institut Català de Paleoecología Humana i Evolució Social (IPHES), Edificio W3, Campus Sescelades URV, Zona Educacional 4
Fabio Silva: Bournemouth University, Fern Barrow, Poole

Nature Communications, 2019, vol. 10, issue 1, 1-13

Abstract: Abstract Demographic change lies at the core of debates on genetic inheritance and resilience to climate change of prehistoric hunter-gatherers. Here we analyze the radiocarbon record of Iberia to reconstruct long-term changes in population levels and test different models of demographic growth during the Last Glacial-Interglacial transition. Our best fitting demographic model is composed of three phases. First, we document a regime of exponential population increase during the Late Glacial warming period (c.16.6-12.9 kya). Second, we identify a phase of sustained population contraction and stagnation, beginning with the cold episode of the Younger Dryas and continuing through the first half of the Early Holocene (12.9-10.2 kya). Finally, we report a third phase of density-dependent logistic growth (10.2-8 kya), with rapid population increase followed by stabilization. Our results support a population bottleneck hypothesis during the Last Glacial-Interglacial transition, providing a demographic context to interpret major shifts of prehistoric genetic groups in south-west Europe.

Date: 2019
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-019-09833-3

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