Key determinants of global land-use projections

Elke Stehfest (), Willem-Jan Zeist, Hugo Valin, Peter Havlik, Alexander Popp, Page Kyle, Andrzej Tabeau, Daniel Mason-D’Croz, Tomoko Hasegawa, Benjamin L. Bodirsky, Katherine Calvin, Jonathan C. Doelman, Shinichiro Fujimori, Florian Humpenöder, Hermann Lotze-Campen, Hans Meijl and Keith Wiebe
Additional contact information
Elke Stehfest: PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
Willem-Jan Zeist: PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
Hugo Valin: International Institute for Applied System Analysis (IIASA)
Alexander Popp: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)
Page Kyle: Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
Andrzej Tabeau: Wageningen University and Research
Daniel Mason-D’Croz: International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)
Tomoko Hasegawa: International Institute for Applied System Analysis (IIASA)
Benjamin L. Bodirsky: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)
Katherine Calvin: Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
Jonathan C. Doelman: PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
Shinichiro Fujimori: International Institute for Applied System Analysis (IIASA)
Florian Humpenöder: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)
Hermann Lotze-Campen: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)
Hans Meijl: Wageningen University and Research
Keith Wiebe: International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Daniel Mason-D'Croz

Nature Communications, 2019, vol. 10, issue 1, 1-10

Abstract: Abstract Land use is at the core of various sustainable development goals. Long-term climate foresight studies have structured their recent analyses around five socio-economic pathways (SSPs), with consistent storylines of future macroeconomic and societal developments; however, model quantification of these scenarios shows substantial heterogeneity in land-use projections. Here we build on a recently developed sensitivity approach to identify how future land use depends on six distinct socio-economic drivers (population, wealth, consumption preferences, agricultural productivity, land-use regulation, and trade) and their interactions. Spread across models arises mostly from diverging sensitivities to long-term drivers and from various representations of land-use regulation and trade, calling for reconciliation efforts and more empirical research. Most influential determinants for future cropland and pasture extent are population and agricultural efficiency. Furthermore, land-use regulation and consumption changes can play a key role in reducing both land use and food-security risks, and need to be central elements in sustainable development strategies.

Date: 2019
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-019-09945-w

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