Stochastic simulations reveal few green wave surfing populations among spring migrating herbivorous waterfowl

Xin Wang, Lei Cao (), Anthony D. Fox, Richard Fuller, Larry Griffin, Carl Mitchell, Yunlin Zhao, Oun-Kyong Moon, David Cabot, Zhenggang Xu, Nyambayar Batbayar, Andrea Kölzsch, Henk P. Jeugd, Jesper Madsen, Liding Chen and Ran Nathan ()
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Xin Wang: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Lei Cao: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Anthony D. Fox: Aarhus University
Richard Fuller: University of Queensland
Larry Griffin: The Wildfowl & Wetlands Trust (WWT)
Carl Mitchell: The Wildfowl & Wetlands Trust (WWT)
Yunlin Zhao: Central South University of Forestry and Technology
Oun-Kyong Moon: Animal and Plant Quarantine Agency
David Cabot: University College Cork
Zhenggang Xu: Central South University of Forestry and Technology
Nyambayar Batbayar: Wildlife Science and Conservation Center
Andrea Kölzsch: Max Planck Institute for Ornithology
Henk P. Jeugd: Vogeltrekstation—Dutch Centre for Avian Migration and Demography (NIOO-KNAW)
Jesper Madsen: Aarhus University
Liding Chen: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Ran Nathan: The Hebrew University of Jerusalem

Nature Communications, 2019, vol. 10, issue 1, 1-12

Abstract: Abstract Tracking seasonally changing resources is regarded as a widespread proximate mechanism underpinning animal migration. Migrating herbivores, for example, are hypothesized to track seasonal foliage dynamics over large spatial scales. Previous investigations of this green wave hypothesis involved few species and limited geographical extent, and used conventional correlation that cannot disentangle alternative correlated effects. Here, we introduce stochastic simulations to test this hypothesis using 222 individual spring migration episodes of 14 populations of ten species of geese, swans and dabbling ducks throughout Europe, East Asia, and North America. We find that the green wave cannot be considered a ubiquitous driver of herbivorous waterfowl spring migration, as it explains observed migration patterns of only a few grazing populations in specific regions. We suggest that ecological barriers and particularly human disturbance likely constrain the capacity of herbivorous waterfowl to track the green wave in some regions, highlighting key challenges in conserving migratory birds.

Date: 2019
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-019-09971-8

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