Human mobility patterns and malaria importation on Bioko Island

Carlos A. Guerra (), Su Yun Kang, Daniel T. Citron, Dianna E. B. Hergott, Megan Perry, Jordan Smith, Wonder P. Phiri, José O. Osá Nfumu, Jeremías N. Mba Eyono, Katherine E. Battle, Harry S. Gibson, Guillermo A. García and David L. Smith
Additional contact information
Carlos A. Guerra: Medical Care Development International
Su Yun Kang: University of Oxford
Daniel T. Citron: University of Washington
Dianna E. B. Hergott: University of Washington, Department of Epidemiology
Megan Perry: Medical Care Development International
Jordan Smith: Medical Care Development International
Wonder P. Phiri: Medical Care Development International
José O. Osá Nfumu: Medical Care Development International
Jeremías N. Mba Eyono: Medical Care Development International
Katherine E. Battle: University of Oxford
Harry S. Gibson: University of Oxford
Guillermo A. García: Medical Care Development International
David L. Smith: University of Washington

Nature Communications, 2019, vol. 10, issue 1, 1-10

Abstract: Abstract Malaria burden on Bioko Island has decreased significantly over the past 15 years. The impact of interventions on malaria prevalence, however, has recently stalled. Here, we use data from island-wide, annual malaria indicator surveys to investigate human movement patterns and their relationship to Plasmodium falciparum prevalence. Using geostatistical and mathematical modelling, we find that off-island travel is more prevalent in and around the capital, Malabo. The odds of malaria infection among off-island travelers are significantly higher than the rest of the population. We estimate that malaria importation rates are high enough to explain malaria prevalence in much of Malabo and its surroundings, and that local transmission is highest along the West Coast of the island. Despite uncertainty, these estimates of residual transmission and importation serve as a basis for evaluating progress towards elimination and for efficiently allocating resources as Bioko makes the transition from control to elimination.

Date: 2019
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-019-10339-1

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