A global multi-hazard risk analysis of road and railway infrastructure assets

E. E. Koks (), J. Rozenberg, C. Zorn, M. Tariverdi, M. Vousdoukas, S. A. Fraser, J. W. Hall and Stephane Hallegatte
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E. E. Koks: University of Oxford
J. Rozenberg: World Bank
C. Zorn: University of Oxford
M. Tariverdi: World Bank
M. Vousdoukas: Joint European Research Centre (JRC)
S. A. Fraser: World Bank
J. W. Hall: University of Oxford

Nature Communications, 2019, vol. 10, issue 1, 1-11

Abstract: Abstract Transport infrastructure is exposed to natural hazards all around the world. Here we present the first global estimates of multi-hazard exposure and risk to road and rail infrastructure. Results reveal that ~27% of all global road and railway assets are exposed to at least one hazard and ~7.5% of all assets are exposed to a 1/100 year flood event. Global Expected Annual Damages (EAD) due to direct damage to road and railway assets range from 3.1 to 22 billion US dollars, of which ~73% is caused by surface and river flooding. Global EAD are small relative to global GDP (~0.02%). However, in some countries EAD reach 0.5 to 1% of GDP annually, which is the same order of magnitude as national transport infrastructure budgets. A cost-benefit analysis suggests that increasing flood protection would have positive returns on ~60% of roads exposed to a 1/100 year flood event.

Date: 2019
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-019-10442-3

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