Adaptive responses of animals to climate change are most likely insufficient

Viktoriia Radchuk (), Thomas Reed, Céline Teplitsky, Martijn Pol, Anne Charmantier, Christopher Hassall, Peter Adamík, Frank Adriaensen, Markus P. Ahola, Peter Arcese, Jesús Miguel Avilés, Javier Balbontin, Karl S. Berg, Antoni Borras, Sarah Burthe, Jean Clobert, Nina Dehnhard, Florentino Lope, André A. Dhondt, Niels J. Dingemanse, Hideyuki Doi, Tapio Eeva, Joerns Fickel, Iolanda Filella, Frode Fossøy, Anne E. Goodenough, Stephen J. G. Hall, Bengt Hansson, Michael Harris, Dennis Hasselquist, Thomas Hickler, Jasmin Joshi, Heather Kharouba, Juan Gabriel Martínez, Jean-Baptiste Mihoub, James A. Mills, Mercedes Molina-Morales, Arne Moksnes, Arpat Ozgul, Deseada Parejo, Philippe Pilard, Maud Poisbleau, Francois Rousset, Mark-Oliver Rödel, David Scott, Juan Carlos Senar, Constanti Stefanescu, Bård G. Stokke, Tamotsu Kusano, Maja Tarka, Corey E. Tarwater, Kirsten Thonicke, Jack Thorley, Andreas Wilting, Piotr Tryjanowski, Juha Merilä, Ben C. Sheldon, Anders Pape Møller, Erik Matthysen, Fredric Janzen, F. Stephen Dobson, Marcel E. Visser, Steven R. Beissinger, Alexandre Courtiol and Stephanie Kramer-Schadt
Additional contact information
Viktoriia Radchuk: Leibniz Institute for Zoo and Wildlife Research (IZW)
Thomas Reed: University College Cork
Céline Teplitsky: CNRS – Université de Montpellier – Université Paul-Valéry Montpellier – EPHE
Martijn Pol: Netherlands Institute of Ecology (NIOO-KNAW)
Anne Charmantier: CNRS – Université de Montpellier – Université Paul-Valéry Montpellier – EPHE
Christopher Hassall: University of Leeds
Peter Adamík: Palacký University
Frank Adriaensen: University of Antwerp
Markus P. Ahola: Swedish Museum of Natural History
Peter Arcese: Department of Forest and Conservation Sciences
Jesús Miguel Avilés: Experimental Station of Arid Zones (EEZA-CSIC)
Javier Balbontin: University of Seville
Karl S. Berg: University of Texas Rio Grande Valley
Antoni Borras: Museu de Ciències Naturals de Barcelona
Sarah Burthe: Bush Estate
Jean Clobert: CNRS and University Paul Sabatier
Nina Dehnhard: University of Antwerp
Florentino Lope: University of Extremadura
André A. Dhondt: Cornell University
Niels J. Dingemanse: Ludwig-Maximilians University of Munich
Hideyuki Doi: University of Hyogo
Tapio Eeva: University of Turku
Joerns Fickel: Leibniz Institute for Zoo and Wildlife Research (IZW)
Iolanda Filella: CREAF
Frode Fossøy: Norwegian Institute for Nature Research (NINA)
Anne E. Goodenough: University of Gloucestershire
Stephen J. G. Hall: Estonian University of Life Sciences
Bengt Hansson: Lund University
Michael Harris: Bush Estate
Dennis Hasselquist: Lund University
Thomas Hickler: Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Center (BiK-F)
Jasmin Joshi: University of Potsdam
Heather Kharouba: University of Ottawa
Juan Gabriel Martínez: Universidad de Granada
Jean-Baptiste Mihoub: Muséum National d’Histoire Naturelle
James A. Mills: 10527A Skyline Drive
Mercedes Molina-Morales: University of Extremadura
Arne Moksnes: Global Ecology Unit CREAF-CSIC-UAB
Arpat Ozgul: University of Zurich
Deseada Parejo: University of Extremadura
Philippe Pilard: LPO Mission Rapaces
Maud Poisbleau: University of Antwerp
Francois Rousset: Université de Montpellier
Mark-Oliver Rödel: Museum für Naturkunde
David Scott: University of Georgia
Juan Carlos Senar: Museu de Ciències Naturals de Barcelona
Constanti Stefanescu: CREAF
Bård G. Stokke: Global Ecology Unit CREAF-CSIC-UAB
Tamotsu Kusano: Tokyo Metropolitan University
Maja Tarka: Lund University
Corey E. Tarwater: University of Wyoming
Kirsten Thonicke: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)
Jack Thorley: Imperial College London
Andreas Wilting: Leibniz Institute for Zoo and Wildlife Research (IZW)
Piotr Tryjanowski: Poznan University of Life Sciences
Juha Merilä: University of Helsinki
Ben C. Sheldon: University of Oxford
Anders Pape Møller: Université Paris-Saclay
Erik Matthysen: University of Antwerp
Fredric Janzen: Iowa State University
F. Stephen Dobson: Auburn University
Marcel E. Visser: Netherlands Institute of Ecology (NIOO-KNAW)
Steven R. Beissinger: University of California
Alexandre Courtiol: Leibniz Institute for Zoo and Wildlife Research (IZW)
Stephanie Kramer-Schadt: Leibniz Institute for Zoo and Wildlife Research (IZW)

Nature Communications, 2019, vol. 10, issue 1, 1-14

Abstract: Abstract Biological responses to climate change have been widely documented across taxa and regions, but it remains unclear whether species are maintaining a good match between phenotype and environment, i.e. whether observed trait changes are adaptive. Here we reviewed 10,090 abstracts and extracted data from 71 studies reported in 58 relevant publications, to assess quantitatively whether phenotypic trait changes associated with climate change are adaptive in animals. A meta-analysis focussing on birds, the taxon best represented in our dataset, suggests that global warming has not systematically affected morphological traits, but has advanced phenological traits. We demonstrate that these advances are adaptive for some species, but imperfect as evidenced by the observed consistent selection for earlier timing. Application of a theoretical model indicates that the evolutionary load imposed by incomplete adaptive responses to ongoing climate change may already be threatening the persistence of species.

Date: 2019
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-019-10924-4

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