Tens of thousands additional deaths annually in cities of China between 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming

Yanjun Wang, Anqian Wang, Jianqing Zhai, Hui Tao, Tong Jiang (), Buda Su (), Jun Yang, Guojie Wang, Qiyong Liu, Chao Gao, Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz, Mingjin Zhan, Zhiqiang Feng and Thomas Fischer ()
Additional contact information
Yanjun Wang: Institute for Disaster Risk Management /School of Geographical Science, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology
Anqian Wang: State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences
Jianqing Zhai: National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration
Hui Tao: State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences
Tong Jiang: Institute for Disaster Risk Management /School of Geographical Science, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology
Buda Su: State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences
Jun Yang: Institute for Environmental and Climate Research, Jinan University
Guojie Wang: Institute for Disaster Risk Management /School of Geographical Science, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology
Qiyong Liu: National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention
Chao Gao: Faculty of Architectural, Civil Engineering and Environment, Ningbo University
Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz: Institute for Disaster Risk Management /School of Geographical Science, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology
Mingjin Zhan: Jiangxi Climate Center
Zhiqiang Feng: School of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh
Thomas Fischer: Eberhard Karls University

Nature Communications, 2019, vol. 10, issue 1, 1-7

Abstract: Abstract The increase in surface air temperature in China has been faster than the global rate, and more high temperature spells are expected to occur in future. Here we assess the annual heat-related mortality in densely populated cities of China at 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C global warming. For this, the urban population is projected under five SSPs, and 31 GCM runs as well as temperature-mortality relation curves are applied. The annual heat-related mortality is projected to increase from 32.1 per million inhabitants annually in 1986–2005 to 48.8–67.1 per million for the 1.5 °C warming and to 59.2–81.3 per million for the 2.0 °C warming, taking improved adaptation capacity into account. Without improved adaptation capacity, heat-related mortality will increase even stronger. If all 831 million urban inhabitants in China are considered, the additional warming from 1.5 °C to 2 °C will lead to more than 27.9 thousand additional heat-related deaths, annually.

Date: 2019
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-019-11283-w

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