Tropical cyclones act to intensify El Niño

Qiuyun Wang, Jianping Li (), Fei-Fei Jin, Johnny C. L. Chan, Chunzai Wang, Ruiqiang Ding, Cheng Sun, Fei Zheng, Juan Feng, Fei Xie, Yanjie Li, Fei Li and Yidan Xu
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Qiuyun Wang: Beijing Normal University
Jianping Li: Ocean University of China and Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology
Fei-Fei Jin: University of Hawai’i at Mānoa
Johnny C. L. Chan: City University of Hong Kong
Chunzai Wang: South China Sea Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences
Ruiqiang Ding: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Cheng Sun: Beijing Normal University
Fei Zheng: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Juan Feng: Beijing Normal University
Fei Xie: Beijing Normal University
Yanjie Li: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Fei Li: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Yidan Xu: Beijing Normal University

Nature Communications, 2019, vol. 10, issue 1, 1-13

Abstract: Abstract Tropical cyclones (TCs), some of the most influential weather events across the globe, are modulated by the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). However, little is known about the feedback of TCs on ENSO. Here, observational and modelling evidence shows that TC activity in the southeastern western North Pacific can affect the Niño-3.4 index 3 months later. Increased TC activity in July–September can significantly contribute to the intensity of ENSO in October–December by weakening the Walker circulation and enhancing eastward-propagating oceanic Kelvin waves in the tropical Pacific. Thus, the greater the accumulated cyclone energy, the stronger (weaker) the El Niño (La Niña). A new physics-based empirical model for ENSO is constructed that significantly outperforms current models in predicting ENSO intensity from July to December and addressing the problem about the target period slippage of ENSO. Results suggest that TCs may provide significant cross-scale feedback to ENSO.

Date: 2019
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-019-11720-w

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