Extinction debts and colonization credits of non-forest plants in the European Alps

Sabine B. Rumpf (), Karl Hülber, Johannes Wessely, Wolfgang Willner, Dietmar Moser, Andreas Gattringer, Günther Klonner, Niklaus E. Zimmermann and Stefan Dullinger
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Sabine B. Rumpf: University of Vienna
Karl Hülber: University of Vienna
Johannes Wessely: University of Vienna
Wolfgang Willner: University of Vienna
Dietmar Moser: University of Vienna
Andreas Gattringer: University of Vienna
Günther Klonner: University of Vienna
Niklaus E. Zimmermann: Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL
Stefan Dullinger: University of Vienna

Nature Communications, 2019, vol. 10, issue 1, 1-9

Abstract: Abstract Mountain plant species shift their elevational ranges in response to climate change. However, to what degree these shifts lag behind current climate change, and to what extent delayed extinctions and colonizations contribute to these shifts, are under debate. Here, we calculate extinction debt and colonization credit of 135 species from the European Alps by comparing species distribution models with 1576 re-surveyed plots. We find extinction debt in 60% and colonization credit in 38% of the species, and at least one of the two in 93%. This suggests that the realized niche of very few of the 135 species fully tracks climate change. As expected, extinction debts occur below and colonization credits occur above the optimum elevation of species. Colonization credits are more frequent in warmth-demanding species from lower elevations with lower dispersal capability, and extinction debts are more frequent in cold-adapted species from the highest elevations. Local extinctions hence appear to be already pending for those species which have the least opportunity to escape climate warming.

Date: 2019
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-019-12343-x

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