Climate-induced phenology shifts linked to range expansions in species with multiple reproductive cycles per year

Callum J. Macgregor (), Chris D. Thomas, David B. Roy, Mark A. Beaumont, James R. Bell, Tom Brereton, Jon R. Bridle, Calvin Dytham, Richard Fox, Karl Gotthard, Ary A. Hoffmann, Geoff Martin, Ian Middlebrook, Sӧren Nylin, Philip J. Platts, Rita Rasteiro, Ilik J. Saccheri, Romain Villoutreix, Christopher W. Wheat and Jane K. Hill
Additional contact information
Callum J. Macgregor: University of York
Chris D. Thomas: University of York
David B. Roy: Crowmarsh Gifford
Mark A. Beaumont: University of Bristol
James R. Bell: West Common, Harpenden
Tom Brereton: East Lulworth, Wareham
Jon R. Bridle: University of Bristol
Calvin Dytham: University of York
Richard Fox: East Lulworth, Wareham
Karl Gotthard: Stockholm University
Ary A. Hoffmann: Bio21 Institute, University of Melbourne
Geoff Martin: Natural History Museum
Ian Middlebrook: East Lulworth, Wareham
Sӧren Nylin: Stockholm University
Philip J. Platts: University of York
Rita Rasteiro: University of Bristol
Ilik J. Saccheri: University of Liverpool
Romain Villoutreix: University of Liverpool
Christopher W. Wheat: Stockholm University
Jane K. Hill: University of York

Nature Communications, 2019, vol. 10, issue 1, 1-10

Abstract: Abstract Advances in phenology (the annual timing of species’ life-cycles) in response to climate change are generally viewed as bioindicators of climate change, but have not been considered as predictors of range expansions. Here, we show that phenology advances combine with the number of reproductive cycles per year (voltinism) to shape abundance and distribution trends in 130 species of British Lepidoptera, in response to ~0.5 °C spring-temperature warming between 1995 and 2014. Early adult emergence in warm years resulted in increased within- and between-year population growth for species with multiple reproductive cycles per year (n = 39 multivoltine species). By contrast, early emergence had neutral or negative consequences for species with a single annual reproductive cycle (n = 91 univoltine species), depending on habitat specialisation. We conclude that phenology advances facilitate polewards range expansions in species exhibiting plasticity for both phenology and voltinism, but may inhibit expansion by less flexible species.

Date: 2019
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-019-12479-w

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