Mapping the increased minimum mortality temperatures in the context of global climate change

Qian Yin, Jinfeng Wang (), Zhoupeng Ren, Jie Li and Yuming Guo
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Qian Yin: Chinese Academy of Sciences. A11
Jinfeng Wang: Chinese Academy of Sciences. A11
Zhoupeng Ren: Chinese Academy of Sciences. A11
Jie Li: Ningxia University
Yuming Guo: Monash University

Nature Communications, 2019, vol. 10, issue 1, 1-8

Abstract: Abstract Minimum mortality temperature (MMT) is an important indicator to assess the temperature–mortality relationship. It reflects human adaptability to local climate. The existing MMT estimates were usually based on case studies in data rich regions, and limited evidence about MMT was available at a global scale. It is still unclear what the most significant driver of MMT is and how MMT will change under global climate change. Here, by analysing MMTs in 420 locations covering six continents (Antarctica was excluded) in the world, we found that although the MMT changes geographically, it is very close to the local most frequent temperature (MFT) in the same period. The association between MFT and MMT is not changed when we adjust for latitude and study year. Based on the MFT~MMT association, we estimate and map the global distribution of MMTs in the present (2010s) and the future (2050s) for the first time.

Date: 2019
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-019-12663-y

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