Carbon and health implications of trade restrictions

Jintai Lin (), Mingxi Du, Lulu Chen, Kuishuang Feng (), Yu Liu (), Randall V. Martin, Jingxu Wang, Ruijing Ni, Yu Zhao, Hao Kong, Hongjian Weng, Mengyao Liu, Aaron van Donkelaar, Qiuyu Liu and Klaus Hubacek
Additional contact information
Jintai Lin: Peking University
Mingxi Du: Peking University
Lulu Chen: Peking University
Kuishuang Feng: Shandong University
Yu Liu: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Randall V. Martin: Washington University in St. Louis
Jingxu Wang: Peking University
Ruijing Ni: Peking University
Yu Zhao: Nanjing University
Hao Kong: Peking University
Hongjian Weng: Peking University
Mengyao Liu: Peking University
Aaron van Donkelaar: Washington University in St. Louis
Qiuyu Liu: University of Quebec at Montreal
Klaus Hubacek: University of Groningen

Nature Communications, 2019, vol. 10, issue 1, 1-12

Abstract: Abstract In a globalized economy, production of goods can be disrupted by trade disputes. Yet the resulting impacts on carbon dioxide emissions and ambient particulate matter (PM2.5) related premature mortality are unclear. Here we show that in contrast to a free trade world, with the emission intensity in each sector unchanged, an extremely anti-trade scenario with current tariffs plus an additional 25% tariff on each traded product would reduce the global export volume by 32.5%, gross domestic product by 9.0%, carbon dioxide by 6.3%, and PM2.5-related mortality by 4.1%. The respective impacts would be substantial for the United States, Western Europe and China. A freer trade scenario would increase global carbon dioxide emission and air pollution due to higher levels of production, especially in developing regions with relatively high emission intensities. Global collaborative actions to reduce emission intensities in developing regions could help achieve an economic-environmental win-win state through globalization.

Date: 2019
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-019-12890-3

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