Biodiversity can benefit from climate stabilization despite adverse side effects of land-based mitigation

Haruka Ohashi (), Tomoko Hasegawa, Akiko Hirata, Shinichiro Fujimori, Kiyoshi Takahashi, Ikutaro Tsuyama, Katsuhiro Nakao, Yuji Kominami, Nobuyuki Tanaka, Yasuaki Hijioka and Tetsuya Matsui
Additional contact information
Haruka Ohashi: Center for International Partnerships and Research on Climate Change, Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute, Forest Research and Management Organization
Tomoko Hasegawa: Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, College of Science and Engineering, Ritsumeikan University
Akiko Hirata: Center for International Partnerships and Research on Climate Change, Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute, Forest Research and Management Organization
Shinichiro Fujimori: Center for Social and Environmental Systems Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan
Kiyoshi Takahashi: Center for Social and Environmental Systems Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan
Ikutaro Tsuyama: Hokkaido Research Center, Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute, Forest Research and Management Organization
Katsuhiro Nakao: Kansai Research Center, Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute, Forest Research and Management Organization
Yuji Kominami: Department of Disaster Prevention, Meteorology and Hydrology, Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute, Forest Research and Management Organization
Nobuyuki Tanaka: Faculty of International Agriculture and Food Studies, Tokyo University of Agriculture
Yasuaki Hijioka: Center for Climate Change Adaptation, National Institute for Environmental Studies
Tetsuya Matsui: Center for International Partnerships and Research on Climate Change, Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute, Forest Research and Management Organization

Nature Communications, 2019, vol. 10, issue 1, 1-11

Abstract: Abstract Limiting the magnitude of climate change via stringent greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation is necessary to prevent further biodiversity loss. However, some strategies to mitigate GHG emission involve greater land-based mitigation efforts, which may cause biodiversity loss from land-use changes. Here we estimate how climate and land-based mitigation efforts interact with global biodiversity by using an integrated assessment model framework to project potential habitat for five major taxonomic groups. We find that stringent GHG mitigation can generally bring a net benefit to global biodiversity even if land-based mitigation is adopted. This trend is strengthened in the latter half of this century. In contrast, some regions projected to experience much growth in land-based mitigation efforts (i.e., Europe and Oceania) are expected to suffer biodiversity loss. Our results support the enactment of stringent GHG mitigation policies in terms of biodiversity. To conserve local biodiversity, however, these policies must be carefully designed in conjunction with land-use regulations and societal transformation in order to minimize the conversion of natural habitats.

Date: 2019
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-019-13241-y

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