Disentangling the role of Africa in the global spread of H5 highly pathogenic avian influenza

Alice Fusaro (), Bianca Zecchin, Bram Vrancken, Celia Abolnik, Rose Ademun, Abdou Alassane, Abdelsatar Arafa, Joseph Adongo Awuni, Emmanuel Couacy-Hymann, Bétiégué Coulibaly M.’, Nicolas Gaidet, Emilie Go-Maro, Tony Joannis, Simon Dickmu Jumbo, Germaine Minoungou, Clement Meseko, Maman Moutari Souley, Deo Birungi Ndumu, Ismaila Shittu, Augustin Twabela, Abel Wade, Lidewij Wiersma, Yao P. Akpeli, Gianpiero Zamperin, Adelaide Milani, Philippe Lemey and Isabella Monne ()
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Alice Fusaro: Department of Comparative Biomedical Sciences, Istituto Zooprofilattico Sperimentale delle Venezie
Bianca Zecchin: Department of Comparative Biomedical Sciences, Istituto Zooprofilattico Sperimentale delle Venezie
Bram Vrancken: KU Leuven, Department of Microbiology and Immunology, Rega Institute
Celia Abolnik: Department of Production Animal Studies, Faculty of Veterinary Science, University of Pretoria
Rose Ademun: National Animal Disease Diagnostics and Epidemiology Center (NADDEC)
Abdou Alassane: Laboratoire Central de l’Elevage (LABOCEL)
Abdelsatar Arafa: National Laboratory for Veterinary Quality Control on Poultry Production (NLQP), Animal Health Research Institute
Joseph Adongo Awuni: Accra Veterinary Laboratory
Emmanuel Couacy-Hymann: Laboratoire Central de Pathologie Animale
Bétiégué Coulibaly M.’: Laboratoire National D’Appui au Développement Agricole
Nicolas Gaidet: CIRAD, UPR GREEN
Emilie Go-Maro: Laboratoire Central Vétérinaire de Lomé
Tony Joannis: National Veterinary Research Institute
Simon Dickmu Jumbo: Laboratoire National Vétérinaire (LANAVET)
Germaine Minoungou: Laboratoire National d’Elevage de Ouagadougou
Clement Meseko: National Veterinary Research Institute
Maman Moutari Souley: Laboratoire Central de l’Elevage (LABOCEL)
Deo Birungi Ndumu: National Animal Disease Diagnostics and Epidemiology Center (NADDEC)
Ismaila Shittu: National Veterinary Research Institute
Augustin Twabela: Veterinary Laboratory of Kinshasa
Abel Wade: Laboratoire National Vétérinaire (LANAVET)
Lidewij Wiersma: Laboratory Unit of the Emergency Prevention System (EMPRES), Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (UN-FAO)
Yao P. Akpeli: Laboratoire Central Vétérinaire de Lomé
Gianpiero Zamperin: Department of Comparative Biomedical Sciences, Istituto Zooprofilattico Sperimentale delle Venezie
Adelaide Milani: Department of Comparative Biomedical Sciences, Istituto Zooprofilattico Sperimentale delle Venezie
Philippe Lemey: KU Leuven, Department of Microbiology and Immunology, Rega Institute
Isabella Monne: Department of Comparative Biomedical Sciences, Istituto Zooprofilattico Sperimentale delle Venezie

Nature Communications, 2019, vol. 10, issue 1, 1-13

Abstract: Abstract The role of Africa in the dynamics of the global spread of a zoonotic and economically-important virus, such as the highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5Nx of the Gs/GD lineage, remains unexplored. Here we characterise the spatiotemporal patterns of virus diffusion during three HPAI H5Nx intercontinental epidemic waves and demonstrate that Africa mainly acted as an ecological sink of the HPAI H5Nx viruses. A joint analysis of host dynamics and continuous spatial diffusion indicates that poultry trade as well as wild bird migrations have contributed to the virus spreading into Africa, with West Africa acting as a crucial hotspot for virus introduction and dissemination into the continent. We demonstrate varying paths of avian influenza incursions into Africa as well as virus spread within Africa over time, which reveal that virus expansion is a complex phenomenon, shaped by an intricate interplay between avian host ecology, virus characteristics and environmental variables.

Date: 2019
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-019-13287-y

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