Global warming changes tropical cyclone translation speed

Munehiko Yamaguchi (), Johnny C. L. Chan, Il-Ju Moon, Kohei Yoshida and Ryo Mizuta
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Munehiko Yamaguchi: Japan Meteorological Agency
Johnny C. L. Chan: City University of Hong Kong
Il-Ju Moon: Jeju National University
Kohei Yoshida: Japan Meteorological Agency
Ryo Mizuta: Japan Meteorological Agency

Nature Communications, 2020, vol. 11, issue 1, 1-7

Abstract: Abstract Slow-moving tropical cyclones (TCs) can cause heavy rain because of their duration of influence. Combined with expected increase in rain rates associated with TCs in a warmer climate, there is growing interest in TC translation speed in the past and future. Here we present that a slowdown trend of the translation speed is not simulated for the period 1951–2011 based on historical model simulations. We also find that the annual-mean translation speed could increase under global warming. Although previous studies show large uncertainties in the future projections of TC characteristics, our model simulations show that the average TC translation speed at higher latitudes becomes smaller in a warmer climate, but the relative frequency of TCs at higher latitudes increases. Since the translation speed is much larger in the extratropics, the increase in the relative frequency of TCs at higher latitudes compensates the reduction of the translation speed there, leading to a global mean increase in TC translation speed.

Date: 2020
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-019-13902-y

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