Anthropogenically-driven increases in the risks of summertime compound hot extremes

Jun Wang, Yang Chen (), Simon F. B. Tett, Zhongwei Yan, Panmao Zhai, Jinming Feng and Jiangjiang Xia
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Jun Wang: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Yang Chen: State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences
Simon F. B. Tett: The University of Edinburgh
Zhongwei Yan: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Panmao Zhai: State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences
Jinming Feng: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Jiangjiang Xia: Chinese Academy of Sciences

Nature Communications, 2020, vol. 11, issue 1, 1-11

Abstract: Abstract Compared to individual hot days/nights, compound hot extremes that combine daytime and nighttime heat are more impactful. However, past and future changes in compound hot extremes as well as their underlying drivers and societal impacts remain poorly understood. Here we show that during 1960–2012, significant increases in Northern Hemisphere average frequency (~1.03 days decade−1) and intensity (~0.28 °C decade−1) of summertime compound hot extremes arise primarily from summer-mean warming. The forcing of rising greenhouse gases (GHGs) is robustly detected and largely accounts for observed trends. Observationally-constrained projections suggest an approximate eightfold increase in hemispheric-average frequency and a threefold growth in intensity of summertime compound hot extremes by 2100 (relative to 2012), given uncurbed GHG emissions. Accordingly, end-of-century population exposure to compound hot extremes is projected to be four to eight times the 2010s level, dependent on demographic and climate scenarios.

Date: 2020
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-019-14233-8

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