Global projections of future urban land expansion under shared socioeconomic pathways

Guangzhao Chen, Xia Li (), Xiaoping Liu (), Yimin Chen (), Xun Liang, Jiye Leng, Xiaocong Xu, Weilin Liao, Yue’an Qiu, Qianlian Wu and Kangning Huang
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Guangzhao Chen: Sun Yat-sen University
Xia Li: East China Normal University
Xiaoping Liu: Sun Yat-sen University
Yimin Chen: Sun Yat-sen University
Xun Liang: China University of Geosciences
Jiye Leng: Sun Yat-sen University
Xiaocong Xu: Sun Yat-sen University
Weilin Liao: Sun Yat-sen University
Yue’an Qiu: Sun Yat-sen University
Qianlian Wu: Sun Yat-sen University
Kangning Huang: Yale School of Forestry and Environmental Studies

Nature Communications, 2020, vol. 11, issue 1, 1-12

Abstract: Abstract Despite its small land coverage, urban land and its expansion have exhibited profound impacts on global environments. Here, we present the scenario projections of global urban land expansion under the framework of the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). Our projections feature a fine spatial resolution of 1 km to preserve spatial details. The projections reveal that although global urban land continues to expand rapidly before the 2040s, China and many other Asian countries are expected to encounter substantial pressure from urban population decline after the 2050s. Approximately 50–63% of the newly expanded urban land is expected to occur on current croplands. Global crop production will decline by approximately 1–4%, corresponding to the annual food needs for a certain crop of 122–1389 million people. These findings stress the importance of governing urban land development as a key measure to mitigate its negative impacts on food production.

Date: 2020
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nat:natcom:v:11:y:2020:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-020-14386-x

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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-14386-x

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