Quantifying contributions of chlorofluorocarbon banks to emissions and impacts on the ozone layer and climate

Megan Lickley (), Susan Solomon, Sarah Fletcher, Guus J. M. Velders, John Daniel, Matthew Rigby, Stephen A. Montzka, Lambert J. M. Kuijpers and Kane Stone
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Megan Lickley: Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Susan Solomon: Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Sarah Fletcher: Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Guus J. M. Velders: National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM)
John Daniel: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administrations
Matthew Rigby: University of Bristol
Stephen A. Montzka: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Lambert J. M. Kuijpers: A/gent b.v. Consultancy
Kane Stone: Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Nature Communications, 2020, vol. 11, issue 1, 1-11

Abstract: Abstract Chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) banks from uses such as air conditioners or foams can be emitted after global production stops. Recent reports of unexpected emissions of CFC-11 raise the need to better quantify releases from these banks, and associated impacts on ozone depletion and climate change. Here we develop a Bayesian probabilistic model for CFC-11, 12, and 113 banks and their emissions, incorporating the broadest range of constraints to date. We find that bank sizes of CFC-11 and CFC-12 are larger than recent international scientific assessments suggested, and can account for much of current estimated CFC-11 and 12 emissions (with the exception of increased CFC-11 emissions after 2012). Left unrecovered, these CFC banks could delay Antarctic ozone hole recovery by about six years and contribute 9 billion metric tonnes of equivalent CO2 emission. Derived CFC-113 emissions are subject to uncertainty, but are much larger than expected, raising questions about its sources.

Date: 2020
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-15162-7

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