Self-preservation strategy for approaching global warming targets in the post-Paris Agreement era

Yi-Ming Wei, Rong Han, Ce Wang (), Biying Yu (), Qiao-Mei Liang, Xiao-Chen Yuan, Junjie Chang, Qingyu Zhao, Hua Liao (), Bao-Jun Tang, Jinyue Yan, Lijing Cheng and Zili Yang
Additional contact information
Rong Han: Beijing Institute of Technology
Junjie Chang: Beijing Institute of Technology
Qingyu Zhao: Beijing Institute of Technology
Jinyue Yan: Royal Institute of Technology
Lijing Cheng: Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences
Zili Yang: State University of New York at Binghamton

Nature Communications, 2020, vol. 11, issue 1, 1-13

Abstract: Abstract A strategy that informs on countries’ potential losses due to lack of climate action may facilitate global climate governance. Here, we quantify a distribution of mitigation effort whereby each country is economically better off than under current climate pledges. This effort-sharing optimizing approach applied to a 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming threshold suggests self-preservation emissions trajectories to inform NDCs enhancement and long-term strategies. Results show that following the current emissions reduction efforts, the whole world would experience a washout of benefit, amounting to almost 126.68–616.12 trillion dollars until 2100 compared to 1.5 °C or well below 2 °C commensurate action. If countries are even unable to implement their current NDCs, the whole world would lose more benefit, almost 149.78–791.98 trillion dollars until 2100. On the contrary, all countries will be able to have a significant positive cumulative net income before 2100 if they follow the self-preservation strategy.

Date: 2020
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-15453-z

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