Fast response of cold ice-rich permafrost in northeast Siberia to a warming climate

Jan Nitzbon (), Sebastian Westermann, Moritz Langer, Léo C. P. Martin, Jens Strauss, Sebastian Laboor and Julia Boike
Additional contact information
Jan Nitzbon: Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research
Sebastian Westermann: University of Oslo
Moritz Langer: Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research
Léo C. P. Martin: University of Oslo
Jens Strauss: Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research
Sebastian Laboor: Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research
Julia Boike: Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research

Nature Communications, 2020, vol. 11, issue 1, 1-11

Abstract: Abstract The ice- and organic-rich permafrost of the northeast Siberian Arctic lowlands (NESAL) has been projected to remain stable beyond 2100, even under pessimistic climate warming scenarios. However, the numerical models used for these projections lack processes which induce widespread landscape change termed thermokarst, precluding realistic simulation of permafrost thaw in such ice-rich terrain. Here, we consider thermokarst-inducing processes in a numerical model and show that substantial permafrost degradation, involving widespread landscape collapse, is projected for the NESAL under strong warming (RCP8.5), while thawing is moderated by stabilizing feedbacks under moderate warming (RCP4.5). We estimate that by 2100 thaw-affected carbon could be up to three-fold (twelve-fold) under RCP4.5 (RCP8.5), of what is projected if thermokarst-inducing processes are ignored. Our study provides progress towards robust assessments of the global permafrost carbon–climate feedback by Earth system models, and underlines the importance of mitigating climate change to limit its impacts on permafrost ecosystems.

Date: 2020
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (10)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-15725-8 Abstract (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nat:natcom:v:11:y:2020:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-020-15725-8

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
https://www.nature.com/ncomms/

DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-15725-8

Access Statistics for this article

Nature Communications is currently edited by Nathalie Le Bot, Enda Bergin and Fiona Gillespie

More articles in Nature Communications from Nature
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().