Early triage of critically ill COVID-19 patients using deep learning

Wenhua Liang, Jianhua Yao, Ailan Chen, Qingquan Lv, Mark Zanin, Jun Liu, SookSan Wong, Yimin Li, Jiatao Lu, Hengrui Liang, Guoqiang Chen, Haiyan Guo, Jun Guo, Rong Zhou, Limin Ou, Niyun Zhou, Hanbo Chen, Fan Yang, Xiao Han, Wenjing Huan, Weimin Tang, Weijie Guan, Zisheng Chen, Yi Zhao, Ling Sang, Yuanda Xu, Wei Wang, Shiyue Li, Ligong Lu, Nuofu Zhang, Nanshan Zhong (), Junzhou Huang () and Jianxing He ()
Additional contact information
Wenhua Liang: The First Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical University
Jianhua Yao: Tencent AI Lab
Ailan Chen: The First Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical University
Qingquan Lv: Hankou Hospital
Mark Zanin: The University of Hong Kong
Jun Liu: The First Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical University
SookSan Wong: The First Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical University
Yimin Li: The First Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical University
Jiatao Lu: Hankou Hospital
Hengrui Liang: The First Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical University
Guoqiang Chen: Foshan Hospital
Haiyan Guo: Foshan Hospital
Jun Guo: Daye Hospital
Rong Zhou: The First Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical University
Limin Ou: The First Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical University
Niyun Zhou: Tencent AI Lab
Hanbo Chen: Tencent AI Lab
Fan Yang: Tencent AI Lab
Xiao Han: Tencent AI Lab
Wenjing Huan: Tencent Healthcare
Weimin Tang: Tencent Healthcare
Weijie Guan: The First Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical University
Zisheng Chen: The First Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical University
Yi Zhao: The First Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical University
Ling Sang: The First Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical University
Yuanda Xu: The First Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical University
Wei Wang: The First Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical University
Shiyue Li: The First Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical University
Ligong Lu: Zhuhai People Hospital
Nuofu Zhang: The First Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical University
Nanshan Zhong: The First Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical University
Junzhou Huang: Tencent AI Lab
Jianxing He: The First Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical University

Nature Communications, 2020, vol. 11, issue 1, 1-7

Abstract: Abstract The sudden deterioration of patients with novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) into critical illness is of major concern. It is imperative to identify these patients early. We show that a deep learning-based survival model can predict the risk of COVID-19 patients developing critical illness based on clinical characteristics at admission. We develop this model using a cohort of 1590 patients from 575 medical centers, with internal validation performance of concordance index 0.894 We further validate the model on three separate cohorts from Wuhan, Hubei and Guangdong provinces consisting of 1393 patients with concordance indexes of 0.890, 0.852 and 0.967 respectively. This model is used to create an online calculation tool designed for patient triage at admission to identify patients at risk of severe illness, ensuring that patients at greatest risk of severe illness receive appropriate care as early as possible and allow for effective allocation of health resources.

Date: 2020
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-17280-8

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