An optimal posttreatment surveillance strategy for cancer survivors based on an individualized risk-based approach

Guan-Qun Zhou, Chen-Fei Wu, Bin Deng, Tian-Sheng Gao, Jia-Wei Lv, Li Lin, Fo-ping Chen, Jia Kou, Zhao-Xi Zhang, Xiao-Dan Huang, Zi-Qi Zheng, Jun Ma, Jin-Hui Liang () and Ying Sun ()
Additional contact information
Guan-Qun Zhou: State Key Laboratory of Oncology in South China, Collaborative Innovation Center for Cancer Medicine, Guangdong Key Laboratory of Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma Diagnosis and Therapy
Chen-Fei Wu: Sun Yat-sen University
Bin Deng: Wuzhou Red Cross Hospital
Tian-Sheng Gao: Wuzhou Red Cross Hospital
Jia-Wei Lv: State Key Laboratory of Oncology in South China, Collaborative Innovation Center for Cancer Medicine, Guangdong Key Laboratory of Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma Diagnosis and Therapy
Li Lin: State Key Laboratory of Oncology in South China, Collaborative Innovation Center for Cancer Medicine, Guangdong Key Laboratory of Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma Diagnosis and Therapy
Fo-ping Chen: State Key Laboratory of Oncology in South China, Collaborative Innovation Center for Cancer Medicine, Guangdong Key Laboratory of Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma Diagnosis and Therapy
Jia Kou: State Key Laboratory of Oncology in South China, Collaborative Innovation Center for Cancer Medicine, Guangdong Key Laboratory of Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma Diagnosis and Therapy
Zhao-Xi Zhang: Sun Yat-sen University
Xiao-Dan Huang: State Key Laboratory of Oncology in South China, Collaborative Innovation Center for Cancer Medicine, Guangdong Key Laboratory of Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma Diagnosis and Therapy
Zi-Qi Zheng: State Key Laboratory of Oncology in South China, Collaborative Innovation Center for Cancer Medicine, Guangdong Key Laboratory of Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma Diagnosis and Therapy
Jun Ma: State Key Laboratory of Oncology in South China, Collaborative Innovation Center for Cancer Medicine, Guangdong Key Laboratory of Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma Diagnosis and Therapy
Jin-Hui Liang: Wuzhou Red Cross Hospital
Ying Sun: State Key Laboratory of Oncology in South China, Collaborative Innovation Center for Cancer Medicine, Guangdong Key Laboratory of Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma Diagnosis and Therapy

Nature Communications, 2020, vol. 11, issue 1, 1-9

Abstract: Abstract The optimal post-treatment surveillance strategy that can detect early recurrence of a cancer within limited visits remains unexplored. Here we adopt nasopharyngeal carcinoma as the study model to establish an approach to surveillance that balances the effectiveness of disease detection versus costs. A total of 7,043 newly-diagnosed patients are grouped according to a clinic-molecular risk grouping system. We use a random survival forest model to simulate the monthly probability of disease recurrence, and thereby establish risk-based surveillance arrangements that can maximize the efficacy of recurrence detection per visit. Markov decision-analytic models further validate that the risk-based surveillance outperforms the control strategies and is the most cost-effective. These results are confirmed in an external validation cohort. Finally, we recommend the risk-based surveillance arrangement which requires 10, 11, 13 and 14 visits for group I to IV. Our surveillance strategies might pave the way for individualized and economic surveillance for cancer survivors.

Date: 2020
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-17672-w Abstract (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nat:natcom:v:11:y:2020:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-020-17672-w

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
https://www.nature.com/ncomms/

DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-17672-w

Access Statistics for this article

Nature Communications is currently edited by Nathalie Le Bot, Enda Bergin and Fiona Gillespie

More articles in Nature Communications from Nature
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().