Forest carbon sink neutralized by pervasive growth-lifespan trade-offs

R. J. W. Brienen (), L. Caldwell, L. Duchesne, S. Voelker, J. Barichivich, M. Baliva, G. Ceccantini, A. Filippo, S. Helama, G. M. Locosselli, L. Lopez, G. Piovesan, J. Schöngart, R. Villalba and E. Gloor
Additional contact information
R. J. W. Brienen: University of Leeds
L. Caldwell: University of Leeds
L. Duchesne: Direction de la recherche forestière
S. Voelker: SUNY-ESF, Syracuse
J. Barichivich: IPSL, CNRS/CEA/UVSQ
M. Baliva: University of Tuscia
G. Ceccantini: Department of Botany
A. Filippo: University of Tuscia
S. Helama: Ounasjoentie 6
G. M. Locosselli: Department of Botany
L. Lopez: Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales (IANIGLA), CONICET-Mendoza, C.C. 330, (5500)
G. Piovesan: University of Tuscia
J. Schöngart: Coordenação de Dinâmica Ambiental (CODAM)
R. Villalba: Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales (IANIGLA), CONICET-Mendoza, C.C. 330, (5500)
E. Gloor: University of Leeds

Nature Communications, 2020, vol. 11, issue 1, 1-10

Abstract: Abstract Land vegetation is currently taking up large amounts of atmospheric CO2, possibly due to tree growth stimulation. Extant models predict that this growth stimulation will continue to cause a net carbon uptake this century. However, there are indications that increased growth rates may shorten trees′ lifespan and thus recent increases in forest carbon stocks may be transient due to lagged increases in mortality. Here we show that growth-lifespan trade-offs are indeed near universal, occurring across almost all species and climates. This trade-off is directly linked to faster growth reducing tree lifespan, and not due to covariance with climate or environment. Thus, current tree growth stimulation will, inevitably, result in a lagged increase in canopy tree mortality, as is indeed widely observed, and eventually neutralise carbon gains due to growth stimulation. Results from a strongly data-based forest simulator confirm these expectations. Extant Earth system model projections of global forest carbon sink persistence are likely too optimistic, increasing the need to curb greenhouse gas emissions.

Date: 2020
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-17966-z Abstract (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nat:natcom:v:11:y:2020:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-020-17966-z

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
https://www.nature.com/ncomms/

DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-17966-z

Access Statistics for this article

Nature Communications is currently edited by Nathalie Le Bot, Enda Bergin and Fiona Gillespie

More articles in Nature Communications from Nature
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().