Reductions in commuting mobility correlate with geographic differences in SARS-CoV-2 prevalence in New York City

Stephen M. Kissler, Nishant Kishore, Malavika Prabhu, Dena Goffman, Yaakov Beilin, Ruth Landau, Cynthia Gyamfi-Bannerman, Brian T. Bateman, Jon Snyder, Armin S. Razavi, Daniel Katz, Jonathan Gal, Angela Bianco, Joanne Stone, Daniel Larremore, Caroline O. Buckee and Yonatan H. Grad ()
Additional contact information
Stephen M. Kissler: Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health
Nishant Kishore: Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health
Malavika Prabhu: Weill Cornell Medicine
Dena Goffman: Columbia University Irving Medical Center
Yaakov Beilin: Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai
Ruth Landau: Columbia University Irving Medical Center
Cynthia Gyamfi-Bannerman: Columbia University Irving Medical Center
Brian T. Bateman: Brigham and Women’s Hospital
Jon Snyder: Weill Cornell Medicine
Armin S. Razavi: Weill Cornell Medicine
Daniel Katz: Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai
Jonathan Gal: Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai
Angela Bianco: Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai
Joanne Stone: Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai
Daniel Larremore: University of Colorado Boulder
Caroline O. Buckee: Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health
Yonatan H. Grad: Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health

Nature Communications, 2020, vol. 11, issue 1, 1-6

Abstract: Abstract SARS-CoV-2-related mortality and hospitalizations differ substantially between New York City neighborhoods. Mitigation efforts require knowing the extent to which these disparities reflect differences in prevalence and understanding the associated drivers. Here, we report the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in New York City boroughs inferred using tests administered to 1,746 pregnant women hospitalized for delivery between March 22nd and May 3rd, 2020. We also assess the relationship between prevalence and commuting-style movements into and out of each borough. Prevalence ranged from 11.3% (95% credible interval [8.9%, 13.9%]) in Manhattan to 26.0% (15.3%, 38.9%) in South Queens, with an estimated city-wide prevalence of 15.6% (13.9%, 17.4%). Prevalence was lowest in boroughs with the greatest reductions in morning movements out of and evening movements into the borough (Pearson R = −0.88 [−0.52, −0.99]). Widespread testing is needed to further specify disparities in prevalence and assess the risk of future outbreaks.

Date: 2020
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-18271-5

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