Global temperature modes shed light on the Holocene temperature conundrum

Jürgen Bader (), Johann Jungclaus, Natalie Krivova, Stephan Lorenz, Amanda Maycock, Thomas Raddatz, Hauke Schmidt, Matthew Toohey, Chi-Ju Wu and Martin Claussen
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Jürgen Bader: Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie
Johann Jungclaus: Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie
Natalie Krivova: Max-Planck-Institut für Sonnensystemforschung
Stephan Lorenz: Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie
Amanda Maycock: University of Leeds
Thomas Raddatz: Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie
Hauke Schmidt: Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie
Matthew Toohey: GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research
Chi-Ju Wu: Max-Planck-Institut für Sonnensystemforschung
Martin Claussen: Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie

Nature Communications, 2020, vol. 11, issue 1, 1-8

Abstract: Abstract Reconstructions of the global mean annual temperature evolution during the Holocene yield conflicting results. One temperature reconstruction shows global cooling during the late Holocene. The other reconstruction reveals global warming. Here we show that both a global warming mode and a cooling mode emerge when performing a spatio-temporal analysis of annual temperature variability during the Holocene using data from a transient climate model simulation. The warming mode is most pronounced in the tropics. The simulated cooling mode is determined by changes in the seasonal cycle of Arctic sea-ice that are forced by orbital variations and volcanic eruptions. The warming mode dominates in the mid-Holocene, whereas the cooling mode takes over in the late Holocene. The weighted sum of the two modes yields the simulated global temperature trend evolution. Our findings have strong implications for the interpretation of proxy data and the selection of proxy locations to compute global mean temperatures.

Date: 2020
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-18478-6

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