A network model of Italy shows that intermittent regional strategies can alleviate the COVID-19 epidemic

Fabio Della Rossa, Davide Salzano, Anna Di Meglio, Francesco De Lellis, Marco Coraggio, Carmela Calabrese, Agostino Guarino, Ricardo Cardona-Rivera, Pietro De Lellis, Davide Liuzza, Francesco Lo Iudice, Giovanni Russo and Mario di Bernardo ()
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Fabio Della Rossa: Politecnico di Milano
Davide Salzano: University of Naples Federico II
Anna Di Meglio: University of Naples Federico II
Francesco De Lellis: University of Naples Federico II
Marco Coraggio: University of Naples Federico II
Carmela Calabrese: University of Naples Federico II
Agostino Guarino: University of Naples Federico II
Ricardo Cardona-Rivera: University of Naples Federico II
Pietro De Lellis: University of Naples Federico II
Davide Liuzza: Fusion and Nuclear Safety Department
Francesco Lo Iudice: University of Naples Federico II
Giovanni Russo: University of Salerno
Mario di Bernardo: University of Naples Federico II

Nature Communications, 2020, vol. 11, issue 1, 1-9

Abstract: Abstract The COVID-19 epidemic hit Italy particularly hard, yielding the implementation of strict national lockdown rules. Previous modelling studies at the national level overlooked the fact that Italy is divided into administrative regions which can independently oversee their own share of the Italian National Health Service. Here, we show that heterogeneity between regions is essential to understand the spread of the epidemic and to design effective strategies to control the disease. We model Italy as a network of regions and parameterize the model of each region on real data spanning over two months from the initial outbreak. We confirm the effectiveness at the regional level of the national lockdown strategy and propose coordinated regional interventions to prevent future national lockdowns, while avoiding saturation of the regional health systems and mitigating impact on costs. Our study and methodology can be easily extended to other levels of granularity to support policy- and decision-makers.

Date: 2020
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-18827-5

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