Greenhouse gas consequences of the China dual credit policy

Xin He (), Shiqi Ou (), Yu Gan (), Zifeng Lu, Steven Victor Przesmitzki, Jessey Lee Bouchard, Lang Sui, Amer Ahmad Amer, Zhenhong Lin, Rujie Yu, Yan Zhou and Michael Wang
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Xin He: Aramco Services Company: Aramco Research Center – Detroit
Shiqi Ou: National Transportation Research Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory
Yu Gan: Systems Assessment Center, Energy Systems Division, Argonne National Laboratory
Zifeng Lu: Systems Assessment Center, Energy Systems Division, Argonne National Laboratory
Steven Victor Przesmitzki: Aramco Services Company: Aramco Research Center – Detroit
Jessey Lee Bouchard: Aramco Services Company: Aramco Research Center – Detroit
Lang Sui: Aramco Services Company: Aramco Research Center – Detroit
Amer Ahmad Amer: Research and Development Center, Saudi Aramco
Zhenhong Lin: National Transportation Research Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory
Rujie Yu: China Automotive Technology and Research Center
Yan Zhou: Systems Assessment Center, Energy Systems Division, Argonne National Laboratory
Michael Wang: Systems Assessment Center, Energy Systems Division, Argonne National Laboratory

Nature Communications, 2020, vol. 11, issue 1, 1-10

Abstract: Abstract For over ten years, China has been the largest vehicle market in the world. In order to address energy security and air quality concerns, China issued the Dual Credit policy to improve vehicle efficiency and accelerate New Energy Vehicle adoption. In this paper, a market-penetration model is combined with a vehicle fleet model to assess implications on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and energy demand. Here we use this integrated modeling framework to study several scenarios, including hypothetical policy tweaks, oil price, battery cost and charging infrastructure for the Chinese passenger vehicle fleet. The model shows that the total GHGs of the Chinese passenger vehicle fleet are expected to peak in 2032 under the Dual Credit policy. A significant reduction in GHG emissions is possible if more efficient internal combustion engines continue to be part of the technology mix in the short term with more New Energy Vehicle penetration in the long term.

Date: 2020
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-19036-w

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