The cascading origin of the 2018 Kīlauea eruption and implications for future forecasting

M. R. Patrick (), B. F. Houghton, K. R. Anderson, M. P. Poland, E. Montgomery-Brown, I. Johanson, W. Thelen and T. Elias
Additional contact information
M. R. Patrick: Hawaiian Volcano Observatory
B. F. Houghton: University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa
K. R. Anderson: California Volcano Observatory
M. P. Poland: Cascades Volcano Observatory
E. Montgomery-Brown: Cascades Volcano Observatory
I. Johanson: Hawaiian Volcano Observatory
W. Thelen: Cascades Volcano Observatory
T. Elias: Hawaiian Volcano Observatory

Nature Communications, 2020, vol. 11, issue 1, 1-13

Abstract: Abstract The 2018 summit and flank eruption of Kīlauea Volcano was one of the largest volcanic events in Hawaiʻi in 200 years. Data suggest that a backup in the magma plumbing system at the long-lived Puʻu ʻŌʻō eruption site caused widespread pressurization in the volcano, driving magma into the lower flank. The eruption evolved, and its impact expanded, as a sequence of cascading events, allowing relatively minor changes at Puʻu ʻŌʻō to cause major destruction and historic changes across the volcano. Eruption forecasting is inherently challenging in cascading scenarios where magmatic systems may prime gradually and trigger on small events.

Date: 2020
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-19190-1

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