Centennial response of Greenland’s three largest outlet glaciers

Shfaqat A. Khan (), Anders A. Bjørk, Jonathan L. Bamber, Mathieu Morlighem, Michael Bevis, Kurt H. Kjær, Jérémie Mouginot, Anja Løkkegaard, David M. Holland, Andy Aschwanden, Bao Zhang, Veit Helm, Niels J. Korsgaard, William Colgan, Nicolaj K. Larsen, Lin Liu, Karina Hansen, Valentina Barletta, Trine S. Dahl-Jensen, Anne Sofie Søndergaard, Beata M. Csatho, Ingo Sasgen, Jason Box and Toni Schenk
Additional contact information
Shfaqat A. Khan: DTU Space, Technical University of Denmark
Anders A. Bjørk: University of Copenhagen
Jonathan L. Bamber: University of Bristol
Mathieu Morlighem: University of California
Michael Bevis: Ohio State University
Kurt H. Kjær: University of Copenhagen
Jérémie Mouginot: Université Grenoble Alpes
Anja Løkkegaard: DTU Space, Technical University of Denmark
David M. Holland: New York University Abu Dhabi
Andy Aschwanden: University of Alaska Fairbanks
Bao Zhang: Wuhan University
Veit Helm: Alfred Wegener Institute
Niels J. Korsgaard: Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland
William Colgan: Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland
Nicolaj K. Larsen: University of Copenhagen
Lin Liu: The Chinese University of Hong Kong
Karina Hansen: DTU Space, Technical University of Denmark
Valentina Barletta: DTU Space, Technical University of Denmark
Trine S. Dahl-Jensen: DTU Space, Technical University of Denmark
Anne Sofie Søndergaard: Aarhus University
Beata M. Csatho: University at Buffalo
Ingo Sasgen: Alfred Wegener Institute
Jason Box: Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland
Toni Schenk: University at Buffalo

Nature Communications, 2020, vol. 11, issue 1, 1-9

Abstract: Abstract The Greenland Ice Sheet is the largest land ice contributor to sea level rise. This will continue in the future but at an uncertain rate and observational estimates are limited to the last few decades. Understanding the long-term glacier response to external forcing is key to improving projections. Here we use historical photographs to calculate ice loss from 1880–2012 for Jakobshavn, Helheim, and Kangerlussuaq glacier. We estimate ice loss corresponding to a sea level rise of 8.1 ± 1.1 millimetres from these three glaciers. Projections of mass loss for these glaciers, using the worst-case scenario, Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5, suggest a sea level contribution of 9.1–14.9 mm by 2100. RCP8.5 implies an additional global temperature increase of 3.7 °C by 2100, approximately four times larger than that which has taken place since 1880. We infer that projections forced by RCP8.5 underestimate glacier mass loss which could exceed this worst-case scenario.

Date: 2020
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-19580-5

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