Alternating quarantine for sustainable epidemic mitigation

Dror Meidan, Nava Schulmann, Reuven Cohen, Simcha Haber, Eyal Yaniv, Ronit Sarid and Baruch Barzel ()
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Dror Meidan: Bar-Ilan University
Nava Schulmann: Politecnico di Milano
Reuven Cohen: Bar-Ilan University
Simcha Haber: Bar-Ilan University
Eyal Yaniv: Graduate School of Business Administration, Bar-Ilan University
Ronit Sarid: Faculty of Life Sciences & Institute of Nanotechnology and Advanced Materials, Bar-Ilan University
Baruch Barzel: Bar-Ilan University

Nature Communications, 2021, vol. 12, issue 1, 1-12

Abstract: Abstract Absent pharmaceutical interventions, social distancing, lock-downs and mobility restrictions remain our prime response in the face of epidemic outbreaks. To ease their potentially devastating socioeconomic consequences, we propose here an alternating quarantine strategy: at every instance, half of the population remains under lockdown while the other half continues to be active - maintaining a routine of weekly succession between activity and quarantine. This regime minimizes infectious interactions, as it allows only half of the population to interact for just half of the time. As a result it provides a dramatic reduction in transmission, comparable to that achieved by a population-wide lockdown, despite sustaining socioeconomic continuity at ~50% capacity. The weekly alternations also help address the specific challenge of COVID-19, as their periodicity synchronizes with the natural SARS-CoV-2 disease time-scales, allowing to effectively isolate the majority of infected individuals precisely at the time of their peak infection.

Date: 2021
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-20324-8

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