Continent-wide tree fecundity driven by indirect climate effects

James S. Clark (), Robert Andrus, Melaine Aubry-Kientz, Yves Bergeron, Michal Bogdziewicz, Don C. Bragg, Dale Brockway, Natalie L. Cleavitt, Susan Cohen, Benoit Courbaud, Robert Daley, Adrian J. Das, Michael Dietze, Timothy J. Fahey, Istem Fer, Jerry F. Franklin, Catherine A. Gehring, Gregory S. Gilbert, Cathryn H. Greenberg, Qinfeng Guo, Janneke HilleRisLambers, Ines Ibanez, Jill Johnstone, Christopher L. Kilner, Johannes Knops, Walter D. Koenig, Georges Kunstler, Jalene M. LaMontagne, Kristin L. Legg, Jordan Luongo, James A. Lutz, Diana Macias, Eliot J. B. McIntire, Yassine Messaoud, Christopher M. Moore, Emily Moran, Jonathan A. Myers, Orrin B. Myers, Chase Nunez, Robert Parmenter, Sam Pearse, Scott Pearson, Renata Poulton-Kamakura, Ethan Ready, Miranda D. Redmond, Chantal D. Reid, Kyle C. Rodman, C. Lane Scher, William H. Schlesinger, Amanda M. Schwantes, Erin Shanahan, Shubhi Sharma, Michael A. Steele, Nathan L. Stephenson, Samantha Sutton, Jennifer J. Swenson, Margaret Swift, Thomas T. Veblen, Amy V. Whipple, Thomas G. Whitham, Andreas P. Wion, Kai Zhu and Roman Zlotin
Additional contact information
James S. Clark: Duke University
Robert Andrus: University of Colorado Boulder
Melaine Aubry-Kientz: University of California, Merced
Yves Bergeron: University of Quebec in Abitibi-Temiscamingue
Michal Bogdziewicz: Adam Mickiewicz University
Don C. Bragg: USDA Forest Service, Southern Research Station
Dale Brockway: USDA Forest Service Southern Research Station
Natalie L. Cleavitt: Cornell University
Susan Cohen: University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
Benoit Courbaud: University Grenoble Alpes
Robert Daley: National Park Service
Adrian J. Das: USGS Western Ecological Research Center
Michael Dietze: Boston University
Timothy J. Fahey: USDA Forest Service Southern Research Station
Istem Fer: Finnish Meteorological Institute
Jerry F. Franklin: University of Washington
Catherine A. Gehring: Northern Arizona University
Gregory S. Gilbert: University of California, Santa Cruz
Cathryn H. Greenberg: Bent Creek Experimental Forest
Qinfeng Guo: Eastern Forest Environmental Threat Assessment Center
Janneke HilleRisLambers: University of Washington
Ines Ibanez: University of Michigan
Jill Johnstone: University of Saskatchewan
Christopher L. Kilner: Duke University
Johannes Knops: Xian Jiaotong-Liverpool University
Walter D. Koenig: University of California Berkeley
Georges Kunstler: University Grenoble Alpes
Jalene M. LaMontagne: DePaul University
Kristin L. Legg: National Park Service
Jordan Luongo: Duke University
James A. Lutz: Utah State University Ecology Center
Diana Macias: University of New Mexico
Eliot J. B. McIntire: Pacific Forestry Centre
Yassine Messaoud: Université du Québec en Abitibi-Témiscamingue
Christopher M. Moore: Colby College
Emily Moran: University of Colorado Boulder
Jonathan A. Myers: Washington University in St. Louis
Orrin B. Myers: University of New Mexico
Chase Nunez: Max Planck Institute of Animal Behavior
Robert Parmenter: National Park Service
Sam Pearse: Fort Collins Science Center
Scott Pearson: Mars Hill University
Renata Poulton-Kamakura: Duke University
Ethan Ready: Duke University
Miranda D. Redmond: Colorado State University
Chantal D. Reid: Duke University
Kyle C. Rodman: University Grenoble Alpes
C. Lane Scher: Duke University
William H. Schlesinger: Duke University
Amanda M. Schwantes: University of Toronto
Erin Shanahan: National Park Service
Shubhi Sharma: Duke University
Michael A. Steele: Wilkes University
Nathan L. Stephenson: USGS Western Ecological Research Center
Samantha Sutton: Duke University
Jennifer J. Swenson: Duke University
Margaret Swift: Duke University
Thomas T. Veblen: University Grenoble Alpes
Amy V. Whipple: Northern Arizona University
Thomas G. Whitham: Northern Arizona University
Andreas P. Wion: Colorado State University
Kai Zhu: University of California, Santa Cruz
Roman Zlotin: Geography Department and Russian and East European Institute

Nature Communications, 2021, vol. 12, issue 1, 1-11

Abstract: Abstract Indirect climate effects on tree fecundity that come through variation in size and growth (climate-condition interactions) are not currently part of models used to predict future forests. Trends in species abundances predicted from meta-analyses and species distribution models will be misleading if they depend on the conditions of individuals. Here we find from a synthesis of tree species in North America that climate-condition interactions dominate responses through two pathways, i) effects of growth that depend on climate, and ii) effects of climate that depend on tree size. Because tree fecundity first increases and then declines with size, climate change that stimulates growth promotes a shift of small trees to more fecund sizes, but the opposite can be true for large sizes. Change the depresses growth also affects fecundity. We find a biogeographic divide, with these interactions reducing fecundity in the West and increasing it in the East. Continental-scale responses of these forests are thus driven largely by indirect effects, recommending management for climate change that considers multiple demographic rates.

Date: 2021
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-20836-3

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