Seasonal biological carryover dominates northern vegetation growth

Xu Lian, Shilong Piao (), Anping Chen, Kai Wang, Xiangyi Li, Wolfgang Buermann, Chris Huntingford, Josep Peñuelas, Hao Xu and Ranga B. Myneni
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Xu Lian: Peking University
Shilong Piao: Peking University
Anping Chen: Colorado State University
Kai Wang: Peking University
Xiangyi Li: Peking University
Wolfgang Buermann: Augsburg University
Chris Huntingford: UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology
Josep Peñuelas: CREAF, Cerdanyola del Valles
Hao Xu: Peking University
Ranga B. Myneni: Boston University

Nature Communications, 2021, vol. 12, issue 1, 1-10

Abstract: Abstract The state of ecosystems is influenced strongly by their past, and describing this carryover effect is important to accurately forecast their future behaviors. However, the strength and persistence of this carryover effect on ecosystem dynamics in comparison to that of simultaneous environmental drivers are still poorly understood. Here, we show that vegetation growth carryover (VGC), defined as the effect of present states of vegetation on subsequent growth, exerts strong positive impacts on seasonal vegetation growth over the Northern Hemisphere. In particular, this VGC of early growing-season vegetation growth is even stronger than past and co-occurring climate on determining peak-to-late season vegetation growth, and is the primary contributor to the recently observed annual greening trend. The effect of seasonal VGC persists into the subsequent year but not further. Current process-based ecosystem models greatly underestimate the VGC effect, and may therefore underestimate the CO2 sequestration potential of northern vegetation under future warming.

Date: 2021
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-21223-2

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