Modelling safe protocols for reopening schools during the COVID-19 pandemic in France

Laura Di Domenico, Giulia Pullano, Chiara E. Sabbatini, Pierre-Yves Boëlle and Vittoria Colizza ()
Additional contact information
Laura Di Domenico: Pierre Louis Institute of Epidemiology and Public Health
Giulia Pullano: Pierre Louis Institute of Epidemiology and Public Health
Chiara E. Sabbatini: Pierre Louis Institute of Epidemiology and Public Health
Pierre-Yves Boëlle: Pierre Louis Institute of Epidemiology and Public Health
Vittoria Colizza: Pierre Louis Institute of Epidemiology and Public Health

Nature Communications, 2021, vol. 12, issue 1, 1-10

Abstract: Abstract As countries in Europe implement strategies to control the COVID-19 pandemic, different options are chosen regarding schools. Through a stochastic age-structured transmission model calibrated to the observed epidemic in Île-de-France in the first wave, we explored scenarios of partial, progressive, or full school reopening. Given the uncertainty on children’s role, we found that reopening schools after lockdown may increase COVID-19 cases, yet protocols exist to keep the epidemic controlled. Under a scenario with stable epidemic activity if schools were closed, reopening pre-schools and primary schools would lead to up to 76% [67, 84]% occupation of ICU beds if no other school level reopened, or if middle and high schools reopened later. Immediately reopening all school levels may overwhelm the ICU system. Priority should be given to pre- and primary schools allowing younger children to resume learning and development, whereas full attendance in middle and high schools is not recommended for stable or increasing epidemic activity. Large-scale test and trace is required to keep the epidemic under control. Ex-post assessment shows that progressive reopening of schools, limited attendance, and strong adoption of preventive measures contributed to a decreasing epidemic after lifting the first lockdown.

Date: 2021
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (11)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-21249-6 Abstract (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nat:natcom:v:12:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-021-21249-6

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
https://www.nature.com/ncomms/

DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-21249-6

Access Statistics for this article

Nature Communications is currently edited by Nathalie Le Bot, Enda Bergin and Fiona Gillespie

More articles in Nature Communications from Nature
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().