Projecting heat-related excess mortality under climate change scenarios in China

Jun Yang (), Maigeng Zhou, Zhoupeng Ren, Mengmeng Li, Boguang Wang, Liu De Li, Chun-Quan Ou, Peng Yin, Jimin Sun, Shilu Tong, Hao Wang, Chunlin Zhang, Jinfeng Wang, Yuming Guo and Qiyong Liu ()
Additional contact information
Jun Yang: Jinan University
Maigeng Zhou: National Center for Chronic and Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention
Zhoupeng Ren: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Mengmeng Li: Sun Yat-Sen University Cancer Center
Boguang Wang: Jinan University
Liu De Li: Wagga Wagga Agricultural Institute
Chun-Quan Ou: Southern Medical University
Peng Yin: National Center for Chronic and Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention
Jimin Sun: Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention
Shilu Tong: Shanghai Jiao Tong University
Hao Wang: Jinan University
Chunlin Zhang: Jinan University
Jinfeng Wang: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Yuming Guo: Monash University
Qiyong Liu: Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention

Nature Communications, 2021, vol. 12, issue 1, 1-11

Abstract: Abstract Recent studies have reported a variety of health consequences of climate change. However, the vulnerability of individuals and cities to climate change remains to be evaluated. We project the excess cause-, age-, region-, and education-specific mortality attributable to future high temperatures in 161 Chinese districts/counties using 28 global climate models (GCMs) under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs). To assess the influence of population ageing on the projection of future heat-related mortality, we further project the age-specific effect estimates under five shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). Heat-related excess mortality is projected to increase from 1.9% (95% eCI: 0.2–3.3%) in the 2010s to 2.4% (0.4–4.1%) in the 2030 s and 5.5% (0.5–9.9%) in the 2090 s under RCP8.5, with corresponding relative changes of 0.5% (0.0–1.2%) and 3.6% (−0.5–7.5%). The projected slopes are steeper in southern, eastern, central and northern China. People with cardiorespiratory diseases, females, the elderly and those with low educational attainment could be more affected. Population ageing amplifies future heat-related excess deaths 2.3- to 5.8-fold under different SSPs, particularly for the northeast region. Our findings can help guide public health responses to ameliorate the risk of climate change.

Date: 2021
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-21305-1

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