Reduction in mobility and COVID-19 transmission

Pierre Nouvellet (), Sangeeta Bhatia, Anne Cori, Kylie E. C. Ainslie, Marc Baguelin, Samir Bhatt, Adhiratha Boonyasiri, Nicholas F. Brazeau, Lorenzo Cattarino, Laura V. Cooper, Helen Coupland, Zulma M. Cucunuba, Gina Cuomo-Dannenburg, Amy Dighe, Bimandra A. Djaafara, Ilaria Dorigatti, Oliver D. Eales, Sabine L. Elsland, Fabricia F. Nascimento, Richard G. FitzJohn, Katy A. M. Gaythorpe, Lily Geidelberg, William D. Green, Arran Hamlet, Katharina Hauck, Wes Hinsley, Natsuko Imai, Benjamin Jeffrey, Edward Knock, Daniel J. Laydon, John A. Lees, Tara Mangal, Thomas A. Mellan, Gemma Nedjati-Gilani, Kris V. Parag, Margarita Pons-Salort, Manon Ragonnet-Cronin, Steven Riley, H. Juliette T. Unwin, Robert Verity, Michaela A. C. Vollmer, Erik Volz, Patrick G. T. Walker, Caroline E. Walters, Haowei Wang, Oliver J. Watson, Charles Whittaker, Lilith K. Whittles, Xiaoyue Xi, Neil M. Ferguson and Christl A. Donnelly ()
Additional contact information
Pierre Nouvellet: Imperial College London, St Mary’s Campus
Sangeeta Bhatia: Imperial College London, St Mary’s Campus
Anne Cori: Imperial College London, St Mary’s Campus
Kylie E. C. Ainslie: Imperial College London, St Mary’s Campus
Marc Baguelin: Imperial College London, St Mary’s Campus
Samir Bhatt: Imperial College London, St Mary’s Campus
Adhiratha Boonyasiri: Imperial College London, St Mary’s Campus
Nicholas F. Brazeau: Imperial College London, St Mary’s Campus
Lorenzo Cattarino: Imperial College London, St Mary’s Campus
Laura V. Cooper: Imperial College London, St Mary’s Campus
Helen Coupland: Imperial College London, St Mary’s Campus
Zulma M. Cucunuba: Imperial College London, St Mary’s Campus
Gina Cuomo-Dannenburg: Imperial College London, St Mary’s Campus
Amy Dighe: Imperial College London, St Mary’s Campus
Bimandra A. Djaafara: Imperial College London, St Mary’s Campus
Ilaria Dorigatti: Imperial College London, St Mary’s Campus
Oliver D. Eales: Imperial College London, St Mary’s Campus
Sabine L. Elsland: Imperial College London, St Mary’s Campus
Fabricia F. Nascimento: Imperial College London, St Mary’s Campus
Richard G. FitzJohn: Imperial College London, St Mary’s Campus
Katy A. M. Gaythorpe: Imperial College London, St Mary’s Campus
Lily Geidelberg: Imperial College London, St Mary’s Campus
William D. Green: Imperial College London, St Mary’s Campus
Arran Hamlet: Imperial College London, St Mary’s Campus
Katharina Hauck: Imperial College London, St Mary’s Campus
Wes Hinsley: Imperial College London, St Mary’s Campus
Natsuko Imai: Imperial College London, St Mary’s Campus
Benjamin Jeffrey: Imperial College London, St Mary’s Campus
Edward Knock: Imperial College London, St Mary’s Campus
Daniel J. Laydon: Imperial College London, St Mary’s Campus
John A. Lees: Imperial College London, St Mary’s Campus
Tara Mangal: Imperial College London, St Mary’s Campus
Thomas A. Mellan: Imperial College London, St Mary’s Campus
Gemma Nedjati-Gilani: Imperial College London, St Mary’s Campus
Kris V. Parag: Imperial College London, St Mary’s Campus
Margarita Pons-Salort: Imperial College London, St Mary’s Campus
Manon Ragonnet-Cronin: Imperial College London, St Mary’s Campus
Steven Riley: Imperial College London, St Mary’s Campus
H. Juliette T. Unwin: Imperial College London, St Mary’s Campus
Robert Verity: Imperial College London, St Mary’s Campus
Michaela A. C. Vollmer: Imperial College London, St Mary’s Campus
Erik Volz: Imperial College London, St Mary’s Campus
Patrick G. T. Walker: Imperial College London, St Mary’s Campus
Caroline E. Walters: Imperial College London, St Mary’s Campus
Haowei Wang: Imperial College London, St Mary’s Campus
Oliver J. Watson: Imperial College London, St Mary’s Campus
Charles Whittaker: Imperial College London, St Mary’s Campus
Lilith K. Whittles: Imperial College London, St Mary’s Campus
Xiaoyue Xi: Imperial College London, St Mary’s Campus
Neil M. Ferguson: Imperial College London, St Mary’s Campus
Christl A. Donnelly: Imperial College London, St Mary’s Campus

Nature Communications, 2021, vol. 12, issue 1, 1-9

Abstract: Abstract In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, countries have sought to control SARS-CoV-2 transmission by restricting population movement through social distancing interventions, thus reducing the number of contacts. Mobility data represent an important proxy measure of social distancing, and here, we characterise the relationship between transmission and mobility for 52 countries around the world. Transmission significantly decreased with the initial reduction in mobility in 73% of the countries analysed, but we found evidence of decoupling of transmission and mobility following the relaxation of strict control measures for 80% of countries. For the majority of countries, mobility explained a substantial proportion of the variation in transmissibility (median adjusted R-squared: 48%, interquartile range - IQR - across countries [27–77%]). Where a change in the relationship occurred, predictive ability decreased after the relaxation; from a median adjusted R-squared of 74% (IQR across countries [49–91%]) pre-relaxation, to a median adjusted R-squared of 30% (IQR across countries [12–48%]) post-relaxation. In countries with a clear relationship between mobility and transmission both before and after strict control measures were relaxed, mobility was associated with lower transmission rates after control measures were relaxed indicating that the beneficial effects of ongoing social distancing behaviours were substantial.

Date: 2021
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-21358-2

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