Harnessing peak transmission around symptom onset for non-pharmaceutical intervention and containment of the COVID-19 pandemic

Liang Tian, Xuefei Li, Fei Qi, Qian-Yuan Tang, Viola Tang, Jiang Liu, Zhiyuan Li, Xingye Cheng, Xuanxuan Li, Yingchen Shi, Haiguang Liu and Lei-Han Tang ()
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Liang Tian: Hong Kong Baptist University, Kowloon
Xuefei Li: Hong Kong Baptist University, Kowloon
Fei Qi: Hong Kong Baptist University, Kowloon
Qian-Yuan Tang: Hong Kong Baptist University, Kowloon
Viola Tang: Hong Kong Baptist University, Kowloon
Jiang Liu: Hong Kong Baptist University, Kowloon
Zhiyuan Li: Hong Kong Baptist University, Kowloon
Xingye Cheng: Hong Kong Baptist University, Kowloon
Xuanxuan Li: Hong Kong Baptist University, Kowloon
Yingchen Shi: Hong Kong Baptist University, Kowloon
Haiguang Liu: Hong Kong Baptist University, Kowloon
Lei-Han Tang: Hong Kong Baptist University, Kowloon

Nature Communications, 2021, vol. 12, issue 1, 1-12

Abstract: Abstract Within a short period of time, COVID-19 grew into a world-wide pandemic. Transmission by pre-symptomatic and asymptomatic viral carriers rendered intervention and containment of the disease extremely challenging. Based on reported infection case studies, we construct an epidemiological model that focuses on transmission around the symptom onset. The model is calibrated against incubation period and pairwise transmission statistics during the initial outbreaks of the pandemic outside Wuhan with minimal non-pharmaceutical interventions. Mathematical treatment of the model yields explicit expressions for the size of latent and pre-symptomatic subpopulations during the exponential growth phase, with the local epidemic growth rate as input. We then explore reduction of the basic reproduction number R0 through specific transmission control measures such as contact tracing, testing, social distancing, wearing masks and sheltering in place. When these measures are implemented in combination, their effects on R0 multiply. We also compare our model behaviour to the first wave of the COVID-19 spreading in various affected regions and highlight generic and less generic features of the pandemic development.

Date: 2021
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-21385-z

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