Emergent vulnerability to climate-driven disturbances in European forests

Giovanni Forzieri (), Marco Girardello, Guido Ceccherini, Jonathan Spinoni, Luc Feyen, Henrik Hartmann, Pieter S. A. Beck, Gustau Camps-Valls, Gherado Chirici, Achille Mauri and Alessandro Cescatti
Additional contact information
Giovanni Forzieri: Joint Research Centre
Marco Girardello: Joint Research Centre
Guido Ceccherini: Joint Research Centre
Jonathan Spinoni: Joint Research Centre
Luc Feyen: Joint Research Centre
Henrik Hartmann: Max-Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry
Pieter S. A. Beck: Joint Research Centre
Gustau Camps-Valls: Universitat de València
Gherado Chirici: University of Florence
Achille Mauri: University of Helsinki
Alessandro Cescatti: Joint Research Centre

Nature Communications, 2021, vol. 12, issue 1, 1-12

Abstract: Abstract Forest disturbance regimes are expected to intensify as Earth’s climate changes. Quantifying forest vulnerability to disturbances and understanding the underlying mechanisms is crucial to develop mitigation and adaptation strategies. However, observational evidence is largely missing at regional to continental scales. Here, we quantify the vulnerability of European forests to fires, windthrows and insect outbreaks during the period 1979–2018 by integrating machine learning with disturbance data and satellite products. We show that about 33.4 billion tonnes of forest biomass could be seriously affected by these disturbances, with higher relative losses when exposed to windthrows (40%) and fires (34%) compared to insect outbreaks (26%). The spatial pattern in vulnerability is strongly controlled by the interplay between forest characteristics and background climate. Hotspot regions for vulnerability are located at the borders of the climate envelope, in both southern and northern Europe. There is a clear trend in overall forest vulnerability that is driven by a warming-induced reduction in plant defence mechanisms to insect outbreaks, especially at high latitudes.

Date: 2021
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nat:natcom:v:12:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-021-21399-7

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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-21399-7

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