Global irrigation contribution to wheat and maize yield

Xuhui Wang (), Christoph Müller, Joshua Elliot, Nathaniel D. Mueller, Philippe Ciais, Jonas Jägermeyr, James Gerber, Patrice Dumas, Chenzhi Wang, Hui Yang, Laurent Li, Delphine Deryng, Christian Folberth, Wenfeng Liu, David Makowski, Stefan Olin, Thomas A. M. Pugh, Ashwan Reddy, Erwin Schmid, Sujong Jeong, Feng Zhou and Shilong Piao
Additional contact information
Xuhui Wang: Peking University
Christoph Müller: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Joshua Elliot: University of Chicago and ANL Computation Institute
Nathaniel D. Mueller: Colorado State University
Philippe Ciais: Peking University
Jonas Jägermeyr: University of Chicago and ANL Computation Institute
James Gerber: University of Minnesota
Chenzhi Wang: Peking University
Hui Yang: Peking University
Laurent Li: Université Pierre et Marie Curie
Delphine Deryng: Climate Analytics
Christian Folberth: Ludwig Maximilian University
Wenfeng Liu: China Agricultural University
David Makowski: Université Paris-Saclay, UMR 211 Agronomie
Stefan Olin: Lund University
Thomas A. M. Pugh: Lund University
Ashwan Reddy: University of Maryland
Erwin Schmid: University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences
Sujong Jeong: Seoul National University
Feng Zhou: Peking University
Shilong Piao: Peking University

Nature Communications, 2021, vol. 12, issue 1, 1-8

Abstract: Abstract Irrigation is the largest sector of human water use and an important option for increasing crop production and reducing drought impacts. However, the potential for irrigation to contribute to global crop yields remains uncertain. Here, we quantify this contribution for wheat and maize at global scale by developing a Bayesian framework integrating empirical estimates and gridded global crop models on new maps of the relative difference between attainable rainfed and irrigated yield (ΔY). At global scale, ΔY is 34 ± 9% for wheat and 22 ± 13% for maize, with large spatial differences driven more by patterns of precipitation than that of evaporative demand. Comparing irrigation demands with renewable water supply, we find 30–47% of contemporary rainfed agriculture of wheat and maize cannot achieve yield gap closure utilizing current river discharge, unless more water diversion projects are set in place, putting into question the potential of irrigation to mitigate climate change impacts.

Date: 2021
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-21498-5

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