The impact of contact tracing and household bubbles on deconfinement strategies for COVID-19

Lander Willem (), Steven Abrams, Pieter J. K. Libin, Pietro Coletti, Elise Kuylen, Oana Petrof, Signe Møgelmose, James Wambua, Sereina A. Herzog, Christel Faes, Philippe Beutels and Niel Hens
Additional contact information
Lander Willem: University of Antwerp
Steven Abrams: UHasselt
Pieter J. K. Libin: UHasselt
Pietro Coletti: UHasselt
Elise Kuylen: University of Antwerp
Oana Petrof: UHasselt
Signe Møgelmose: UHasselt
James Wambua: UHasselt
Sereina A. Herzog: University of Antwerp
Christel Faes: UHasselt
Philippe Beutels: University of Antwerp
Niel Hens: University of Antwerp

Nature Communications, 2021, vol. 12, issue 1, 1-9

Abstract: Abstract The COVID-19 pandemic caused many governments to impose policies restricting social interactions. A controlled and persistent release of lockdown measures covers many potential strategies and is subject to extensive scenario analyses. Here, we use an individual-based model (STRIDE) to simulate interactions between 11 million inhabitants of Belgium at different levels including extended household settings, i.e., “household bubbles”. The burden of COVID-19 is impacted by both the intensity and frequency of physical contacts, and therefore, household bubbles have the potential to reduce hospital admissions by 90%. In addition, we find that it is crucial to complete contact tracing 4 days after symptom onset. Assumptions on the susceptibility of children affect the impact of school reopening, though we find that business and leisure-related social mixing patterns have more impact on COVID-19 associated disease burden. An optimal deployment of the mitigation policies under study require timely compliance to physical distancing, testing and self-isolation.

Date: 2021
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-21747-7

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