Predicting the public health impact of a malaria transmission-blocking vaccine

Joseph D. Challenger (), Daniela Olivera Mesa, Dari F. Da, R. Serge Yerbanga, Thierry Lefèvre, Anna Cohuet and Thomas S. Churcher
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Joseph D. Challenger: Imperial College London
Daniela Olivera Mesa: Imperial College London
Dari F. Da: Institut de Recherche en Sciences de la Santé
R. Serge Yerbanga: Institut de Recherche en Sciences de la Santé
Thierry Lefèvre: MIVEGEC, University of Montpellier, CNRS, IRD
Anna Cohuet: MIVEGEC, University of Montpellier, CNRS, IRD
Thomas S. Churcher: Imperial College London

Nature Communications, 2021, vol. 12, issue 1, 1-12

Abstract: Abstract Transmission-blocking vaccines that interrupt malaria transmission from humans to mosquitoes are being tested in early clinical trials. The activity of such a vaccine is commonly evaluated using membrane-feeding assays. Understanding the field efficacy of such a vaccine requires knowledge of how heavily infected wild, naturally blood-fed mosquitoes are, as this indicates how difficult it will be to block transmission. Here we use data on naturally infected mosquitoes collected in Burkina Faso to translate the laboratory-estimated activity into an estimated activity in the field. A transmission dynamics model is then utilised to predict a transmission-blocking vaccine’s public health impact alongside existing interventions. The model suggests that school-aged children are an attractive population to target for vaccination. Benefits of vaccination are distributed across the population, averting the greatest number of cases in younger children. Utilising a transmission-blocking vaccine alongside existing interventions could have a substantial impact against malaria.

Date: 2021
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-21775-3

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