Interactions between timing and transmissibility explain diverse flavivirus dynamics in Fiji

Alasdair D. Henderson (), Mike Kama, Maite Aubry, Stephane Hue, Anita Teissier, Taina Naivalu, Vinaisi D. Bechu, Jimaima Kailawadoko, Isireli Rabukawaqa, Aalisha Sahukhan, Martin L. Hibberd, Eric J. Nilles, Sebastian Funk, Jimmy Whitworth, Conall H. Watson, Colleen L. Lau, W. John Edmunds, Cao-Lormeau Van-Mai and Adam J. Kucharski
Additional contact information
Alasdair D. Henderson: London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
Mike Kama: Fiji Center for Diseases Control
Maite Aubry: Institut Louis Malardé
Stephane Hue: London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
Anita Teissier: Institut Louis Malardé
Taina Naivalu: Fiji National University
Vinaisi D. Bechu: Fiji Center for Diseases Control
Jimaima Kailawadoko: Fiji Center for Diseases Control
Isireli Rabukawaqa: Fiji Center for Diseases Control
Aalisha Sahukhan: Fiji Center for Diseases Control
Martin L. Hibberd: London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
Eric J. Nilles: Harvard Humanitarian Initiative
Sebastian Funk: London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
Jimmy Whitworth: London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
Conall H. Watson: London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
Colleen L. Lau: Research School of Population Health, The Australian National University
W. John Edmunds: London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
Cao-Lormeau Van-Mai: Institut Louis Malardé
Adam J. Kucharski: London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine

Nature Communications, 2021, vol. 12, issue 1, 1-9

Abstract: Abstract Zika virus (ZIKV) has caused large, brief outbreaks in isolated populations, however ZIKV can also persist at low levels over multiple years. The reasons for these diverse transmission dynamics remain poorly understood. In Fiji, which has experienced multiple large single-season dengue epidemics, there was evidence of multi-year transmission of ZIKV between 2013 and 2017. To identify factors that could explain these differences in dynamics between closely related mosquito-borne flaviviruses, we jointly fit a transmission dynamic model to surveillance, serological and molecular data. We estimate that the observed dynamics of ZIKV were the result of two key factors: strong seasonal effects, which created an ecologically optimal time of year for outbreaks; and introduction of ZIKV after this optimal time, which allowed ZIKV transmission to persist over multiple seasons. The ability to jointly fit to multiple data sources could help identify a similar range of possible outbreak dynamics in other settings.

Date: 2021
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-21788-y

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