Implications of the school-household network structure on SARS-CoV-2 transmission under school reopening strategies in England

James D. Munday (), Katharine Sherratt, Sophie Meakin, Akira Endo, Carl A. B. Pearson, Joel Hellewell, Sam Abbott, Nikos I. Bosse, Katherine E. Atkins, Jacco Wallinga, W. John Edmunds, Albert Jan Hoek and Sebastian Funk
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James D. Munday: London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
Katharine Sherratt: London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
Sophie Meakin: London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
Akira Endo: London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
Carl A. B. Pearson: London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
Joel Hellewell: London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
Sam Abbott: London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
Nikos I. Bosse: London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
Katherine E. Atkins: London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
Jacco Wallinga: National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM)
W. John Edmunds: London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
Albert Jan Hoek: London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
Sebastian Funk: London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine

Nature Communications, 2021, vol. 12, issue 1, 1-11

Abstract: Abstract In early 2020 many countries closed schools to mitigate the spread of SARS-CoV-2. Since then, governments have sought to relax the closures, engendering a need to understand associated risks. Using address records, we construct a network of schools in England connected through pupils who share households. We evaluate the risk of transmission between schools under different reopening scenarios. We show that whilst reopening select year-groups causes low risk of large-scale transmission, reopening secondary schools could result in outbreaks affecting up to 2.5 million households if unmitigated, highlighting the importance of careful monitoring and within-school infection control to avoid further school closures or other restrictions.

Date: 2021
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-22213-0

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