Hospital load and increased COVID-19 related mortality in Israel

Hagai Rossman, Tomer Meir, Jonathan Somer, Smadar Shilo, Rom Gutman, Asaf Arie, Eran Segal (), Uri Shalit () and Malka Gorfine ()
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Hagai Rossman: Weizmann Institute of Science
Tomer Meir: Weizmann Institute of Science
Jonathan Somer: Technion - Israel Institute of Technology
Smadar Shilo: Weizmann Institute of Science
Rom Gutman: Technion - Israel Institute of Technology
Asaf Arie: Tel Aviv University
Eran Segal: Weizmann Institute of Science
Uri Shalit: Technion - Israel Institute of Technology
Malka Gorfine: Tel Aviv University

Nature Communications, 2021, vol. 12, issue 1, 1-7

Abstract: Abstract The spread of Coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19) has led to many healthcare systems being overwhelmed by the rapid emergence of new cases. Here, we study the ramifications of hospital load due to COVID-19 morbidity on in-hospital mortality of patients with COVID-19 by analyzing records of all 22,636 COVID-19 patients hospitalized in Israel from mid-July 2020 to mid-January 2021. We show that even under moderately heavy patient load (>500 countrywide hospitalized severely-ill patients; the Israeli Ministry of Health defined 800 severely-ill patients as the maximum capacity allowing adequate treatment), in-hospital mortality rate of patients with COVID-19 significantly increased compared to periods of lower patient load (250–500 severely-ill patients): 14-day mortality rates were 22.1% (Standard Error 3.1%) higher (mid-September to mid-October) and 27.2% (Standard Error 3.3%) higher (mid-December to mid-January). We further show this higher mortality rate cannot be attributed to changes in the patient population during periods of heavier load.

Date: 2021
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-22214-z

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