Genetic evidence for the association between COVID-19 epidemic severity and timing of non-pharmaceutical interventions

Manon Ragonnet-Cronin (), Olivia Boyd, Lily Geidelberg, David Jorgensen, Fabricia F. Nascimento, Igor Siveroni, Robert A. Johnson, Marc Baguelin, Zulma M. Cucunubá, Elita Jauneikaite, Swapnil Mishra, Oliver J. Watson, Neil Ferguson, Anne Cori, Christl A. Donnelly and Erik Volz
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Manon Ragonnet-Cronin: Imperial College London
Olivia Boyd: Imperial College London
Lily Geidelberg: Imperial College London
David Jorgensen: Imperial College London
Fabricia F. Nascimento: Imperial College London
Igor Siveroni: Imperial College London
Robert A. Johnson: Imperial College London
Marc Baguelin: Imperial College London
Zulma M. Cucunubá: Imperial College London
Elita Jauneikaite: Imperial College London
Swapnil Mishra: Imperial College London
Oliver J. Watson: Imperial College London
Neil Ferguson: Imperial College London
Anne Cori: Imperial College London
Christl A. Donnelly: Imperial College London
Erik Volz: Imperial College London

Nature Communications, 2021, vol. 12, issue 1, 1-7

Abstract: Abstract Unprecedented public health interventions including travel restrictions and national lockdowns have been implemented to stem the COVID-19 epidemic, but the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions is still debated. We carried out a phylogenetic analysis of more than 29,000 publicly available whole genome SARS-CoV-2 sequences from 57 locations to estimate the time that the epidemic originated in different places. These estimates were examined in relation to the dates of the most stringent interventions in each location as well as to the number of cumulative COVID-19 deaths and phylodynamic estimates of epidemic size. Here we report that the time elapsed between epidemic origin and maximum intervention is associated with different measures of epidemic severity and explains 11% of the variance in reported deaths one month after the most stringent intervention. Locations where strong non-pharmaceutical interventions were implemented earlier experienced much less severe COVID-19 morbidity and mortality during the period of study.

Date: 2021
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nat:natcom:v:12:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-021-22366-y

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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-22366-y

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