A small climate-amplifying effect of climate-carbon cycle feedback

Xuanze Zhang (), Ying-Ping Wang (), Peter J. Rayner, Philippe Ciais, Kun Huang, Yiqi Luo, Shilong Piao, Zhonglei Wang, Jianyang Xia, Wei Zhao, Xiaogu Zheng, Jing Tian and Yongqiang Zhang ()
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Xuanze Zhang: Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences
Ying-Ping Wang: Terrestrial Biogeochemistry Group, South China Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences
Peter J. Rayner: University of Melbourne
Philippe Ciais: Université Paris-Saclay
Kun Huang: East China Normal University
Yiqi Luo: Northern Arizona University
Shilong Piao: Peking University
Zhonglei Wang: Xiamen University
Jianyang Xia: East China Normal University
Wei Zhao: National Meteorological Center, China Meteorological Administration
Xiaogu Zheng: Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment Research for East Asia, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences
Jing Tian: Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences
Yongqiang Zhang: Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences

Nature Communications, 2021, vol. 12, issue 1, 1-11

Abstract: Abstract The climate-carbon cycle feedback is one of the most important climate-amplifying feedbacks of the Earth system, and is quantified as a function of carbon-concentration feedback parameter (β) and carbon-climate feedback parameter (γ). However, the global climate-amplifying effect from this feedback loop (determined by the gain factor, g) has not been quantified from observations. Here we apply a Fourier analysis-based carbon cycle feedback framework to the reconstructed records from 1850 to 2017 and 1000 to 1850 to estimate β and γ. We show that the β-feedback varies by less than 10% with an average of 3.22 ± 0.32 GtC ppm−1 for 1880–2017, whereas the γ-feedback increases from −33 ± 14 GtC K−1 on a decadal scale to −122 ± 60 GtC K−1 on a centennial scale for 1000–1850. Feedback analysis further reveals that the current amplification effect from the carbon cycle feedback is small (g is 0.01 ± 0.05), which is much lower than the estimates by the advanced Earth system models (g is 0.09 ± 0.04 for the historical period and is 0.15 ± 0.08 for the RCP8.5 scenario), implying that the future allowable CO2 emissions could be 9 ± 7% more. Therefore, our findings provide new insights about the strength of climate-carbon cycle feedback and about observational constraints on models for projecting future climate.

Date: 2021
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-22392-w

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