Substantial hysteresis in emergent temperature sensitivity of global wetland CH4 emissions

Kuang-Yu Chang (), William J. Riley (), Sara H. Knox, Robert B. Jackson, Gavin McNicol, Benjamin Poulter, Mika Aurela, Dennis Baldocchi, Sheel Bansal, Gil Bohrer, David I. Campbell, Alessandro Cescatti, Housen Chu, Kyle B. Delwiche, Ankur R. Desai, Eugenie Euskirchen, Thomas Friborg, Mathias Goeckede, Manuel Helbig, Kyle S. Hemes, Takashi Hirano, Hiroki Iwata, Minseok Kang, Trevor Keenan, Ken W. Krauss, Annalea Lohila, Ivan Mammarella, Bhaskar Mitra, Akira Miyata, Mats B. Nilsson, Asko Noormets, Walter C. Oechel, Dario Papale, Matthias Peichl, Michele L. Reba, Janne Rinne, Benjamin R. K. Runkle, Youngryel Ryu, Torsten Sachs, Karina V. R. Schäfer, Hans Peter Schmid, Narasinha Shurpali, Oliver Sonnentag, Angela C. I. Tang, Margaret S. Torn, Carlo Trotta, Eeva-Stiina Tuittila, Masahito Ueyama, Rodrigo Vargas, Timo Vesala, Lisamarie Windham-Myers, Zhen Zhang and Donatella Zona
Additional contact information
Kuang-Yu Chang: Climate and Ecosystem Sciences Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
William J. Riley: Climate and Ecosystem Sciences Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
Sara H. Knox: The University of British Columbia
Robert B. Jackson: Stanford University
Gavin McNicol: Stanford University
Benjamin Poulter: NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Biospheric Sciences Laboratory
Mika Aurela: Finnish Meteorological Institute
Dennis Baldocchi: Department of Environmental Science, Policy & Management, UC Berkeley
Sheel Bansal: U.S. Geological Survey, Northern Prairie Wildlife Research Center
Gil Bohrer: The Ohio State University
David I. Campbell: University of Waikato
Alessandro Cescatti: European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC)
Housen Chu: Climate and Ecosystem Sciences Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
Kyle B. Delwiche: Stanford University
Ankur R. Desai: University of Wisconsin-Madison
Eugenie Euskirchen: University of Alaska Fairbanks, Institute of Arctic Biology
Thomas Friborg: University of Copenhagen
Mathias Goeckede: Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry
Manuel Helbig: McMaster University
Kyle S. Hemes: Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University
Takashi Hirano: Hokkaido University
Hiroki Iwata: Shinshu University
Minseok Kang: National Center for AgroMeteorology
Trevor Keenan: Climate and Ecosystem Sciences Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
Ken W. Krauss: U.S. Geological Survey, Wetland and Aquatic Research Center
Annalea Lohila: Finnish Meteorological Institute
Ivan Mammarella: University of Helsink
Bhaskar Mitra: Texas A&M University
Akira Miyata: Institute for Agro-Environmental Sciences, National Agriculture and Food Research Organization
Mats B. Nilsson: Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences
Asko Noormets: Texas A&M University
Walter C. Oechel: San Diego State University
Dario Papale: DIBAF, Università degli Studi della Tuscia, Largo dell’Università
Matthias Peichl: Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences
Michele L. Reba: United States Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Research Service, Delta Water Management Research Service
Janne Rinne: Lund University
Benjamin R. K. Runkle: University of Arkansas
Youngryel Ryu: Seoul National University
Torsten Sachs: GFZ German Research Centre for Geoscience
Karina V. R. Schäfer: Rutgers University Newark
Hans Peter Schmid: Institute of Meteorology and Climatology – Atmospheric Environmental Research (IMK-IFU), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT)
Narasinha Shurpali: Production Systems, Natural Resources Institute Finland
Oliver Sonnentag: Département de Géographie & Centre d’Études Nordiques
Angela C. I. Tang: Sarawak Tropical Peat Research Institute
Margaret S. Torn: Climate and Ecosystem Sciences Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
Carlo Trotta: DIBAF, Università degli Studi della Tuscia, Largo dell’Università
Eeva-Stiina Tuittila: University of Eastern Finland
Masahito Ueyama: Osaka Prefecture University
Rodrigo Vargas: University of Delaware
Timo Vesala: University of Helsink
Lisamarie Windham-Myers: Water Mission Area, U.S. Geological Survey
Zhen Zhang: University of Maryland
Donatella Zona: San Diego State University

Nature Communications, 2021, vol. 12, issue 1, 1-10

Abstract: Abstract Wetland methane (CH4) emissions ( $${F}_{{{CH}}_{4}}$$ F C H 4 ) are important in global carbon budgets and climate change assessments. Currently, $${F}_{{{CH}}_{4}}$$ F C H 4 projections rely on prescribed static temperature sensitivity that varies among biogeochemical models. Meta-analyses have proposed a consistent $${F}_{{{CH}}_{4}}$$ F C H 4 temperature dependence across spatial scales for use in models; however, site-level studies demonstrate that $${F}_{{{CH}}_{4}}$$ F C H 4 are often controlled by factors beyond temperature. Here, we evaluate the relationship between $${F}_{{{CH}}_{4}}$$ F C H 4 and temperature using observations from the FLUXNET-CH4 database. Measurements collected across the globe show substantial seasonal hysteresis between $${F}_{{{CH}}_{4}}$$ F C H 4 and temperature, suggesting larger $${F}_{{{CH}}_{4}}$$ F C H 4 sensitivity to temperature later in the frost-free season (about 77% of site-years). Results derived from a machine-learning model and several regression models highlight the importance of representing the large spatial and temporal variability within site-years and ecosystem types. Mechanistic advancements in biogeochemical model parameterization and detailed measurements in factors modulating CH4 production are thus needed to improve global CH4 budget assessments.

Date: 2021
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-22452-1

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