Phenological shifts in lake stratification under climate change

R. Iestyn Woolway (), Sapna Sharma, Gesa A. Weyhenmeyer, Andrey Debolskiy, Malgorzata Golub, Daniel Mercado-Bettín, Marjorie Perroud, Victor Stepanenko, Zeli Tan, Luke Grant, Robert Ladwig, Jorrit Mesman, Tadhg N. Moore, Tom Shatwell, Inne Vanderkelen, Jay A. Austin, Curtis L. DeGasperi, Martin Dokulil, Sofia Fuente, Eleanor B. Mackay, S. Geoffrey Schladow, Shohei Watanabe, Rafael Marcé, Don C. Pierson, Wim Thiery and Eleanor Jennings
Additional contact information
R. Iestyn Woolway: Dundalk Institute of Technology
Sapna Sharma: York University
Gesa A. Weyhenmeyer: Uppsala University
Andrey Debolskiy: Lomonosov Moscow State University
Malgorzata Golub: Uppsala University
Daniel Mercado-Bettín: Catalan Institute for Water Research
Marjorie Perroud: University of Geneva, Institute for Environmental Sciences
Victor Stepanenko: Lomonosov Moscow State University
Zeli Tan: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
Luke Grant: Vrije Universiteit Brussel
Robert Ladwig: University of Wisconsin-Madison
Jorrit Mesman: Uppsala University
Tadhg N. Moore: Dundalk Institute of Technology
Tom Shatwell: Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research-UFZ
Inne Vanderkelen: Vrije Universiteit Brussel
Jay A. Austin: University of Minnesota Duluth
Curtis L. DeGasperi: King County Water and Land Resources Division
Martin Dokulil: University of Innsbruck
Sofia Fuente: Dundalk Institute of Technology
Eleanor B. Mackay: UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Lancaster Environment Centre
S. Geoffrey Schladow: University of California
Shohei Watanabe: University of California
Rafael Marcé: Catalan Institute for Water Research
Don C. Pierson: Uppsala University
Wim Thiery: Vrije Universiteit Brussel
Eleanor Jennings: Dundalk Institute of Technology

Nature Communications, 2021, vol. 12, issue 1, 1-11

Abstract: Abstract One of the most important physical characteristics driving lifecycle events in lakes is stratification. Already subtle variations in the timing of stratification onset and break-up (phenology) are known to have major ecological effects, mainly by determining the availability of light, nutrients, carbon and oxygen to organisms. Despite its ecological importance, historic and future global changes in stratification phenology are unknown. Here, we used a lake-climate model ensemble and long-term observational data, to investigate changes in lake stratification phenology across the Northern Hemisphere from 1901 to 2099. Under the high-greenhouse-gas-emission scenario, stratification will begin 22.0 ± 7.0 days earlier and end 11.3 ± 4.7 days later by the end of this century. It is very likely that this 33.3 ± 11.7 day prolongation in stratification will accelerate lake deoxygenation with subsequent effects on nutrient mineralization and phosphorus release from lake sediments. Further misalignment of lifecycle events, with possible irreversible changes for lake ecosystems, is also likely.

Date: 2021
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nat:natcom:v:12:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-021-22657-4

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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-22657-4

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